The basic logic from any propositional statement is that the conclusion must follow from the premises, and that an argument must be both valid and sound. An argument is valid if its logical structure ensures that the conclusion follows from the premises, but an argument is only sound if it is valid, and all its premises are true. Consequently, an argument can be valid but not sound, but if sound, it is valid too. For example:
P1: All gorillas are yellow
P2: Bruce is
a gorilla
C: Therefore Bruce is yellow
This argument is valid, but not sound. It has a valid structure (the conclusion logically follows from the premises), but the premise that all gorillas are yellow is, of course, false.
A sound argument would be:
P1: All gorillas are mammals
P2: Bruce is
a gorilla
C: Therefore, Bruce is a mammal
When making arguments that purport to be valid and sound, you have to make sure all your base rates are properly examined, and you also have to ensure you have the right number of premises to reach the right conclusion. The optimum number of premises would be a number sufficient to provide enough information to support the conclusion, but contain no extraneous premises that are redundant to the process. There are lots of premises we could add that give additional information about Bruce, which are unnecessary in determining whether Bruce is a mammal (“Bruce lives in a zoo”, “Bruce likes to eat fruit”, etc) ; but equally, the removal of one premise (“Bruce is a gorilla”) undermines the argument, as there are now too few premises to reach the conclusion.
Turning now to young earth creationism - pretty much all of their erroneous conclusions are defective because of initial base rate errors. Remember, if you have a base rate error, your subsequent probabilities and propositions will be faulty, while still seeming internally consistent to you. From much experience in dialogue with them, here are the primary base rate errors that I’ve noticed young earth creationists make, and the problems they cause.
Base rate
error 1: Biblical literalism without context, nuance, or proper interpretation.
This is the
primary base rate error that influences the majority of their other errors.
Once you fail initially to discern the proper depth of meaning in texts like
early Genesis, and later Biblical references to them, then you’ve just laid the
foundation for a litany of basic errors in reasoning, and numerous faulty
conclusions.
Base rate
error 2: God’s word is perfect and without error, therefore if I think it says
something, it can’t be questioned.
This base
rate error underwrites so many of their associative errors, and works in
conjunction with number 1. Because YECs read these key verses without context,
nuance, or proper interpretation, they just see ‘God’s word’ without any
critical analysis, and therefore if God’s word can’t be wrong, they must be
right, and evolution must be false.
Base rate
error 3: Failure to understand that the Bible is not a book that informs on
scientific facts.
If your base
rate error leads you to believe that scripture is making scientific claims,
then these misinterpretations will lead to all kinds of faulty conclusions in
contradiction to known scientific facts. Every pseudo-scientific claim YECs
make is based on this base rate fallacy, and bootstrapped by base rate errors 1
and 2.
Base rate
error 4: The evolution = no God fallacy.
Once base
rate errors 1-3 have got under their skin, then this one naturally gets
embedded too. YECs think evolution over millions of years means just random
naturalism and no need for God (to them, it sounds too much like atheism),
so any established scientific facts that support evolution are ignored or
dismissed because they threaten the concept of ‘creation’ (and from which, the
whole bogus institution of ‘creation science’ takes root and spreads its
weeds).
Base rate
error 5: If it doesn’t support a young earth, it must be false.
By now, the
YECs are so conditioned by numbers 1-4 that the final base rate error to embed
itself with all the others is that any Biblical interpretation, scientific
propositions or rational argument that doesn’t support young earth creationism
must be false. At this point, their brains will be so disordered that they will
only be able to conclude that a) You’re not really a Christian; b) You’re a
Christian who doesn’t take God’s word seriously enough; c) You’re a Christian
who has fallen for an atheist deception; or d) You’re a Christian who is
contributing to the secular decay of Christianity.
These bate rate errors form the bedrock of almost all the Biblical, interpretive, scientific and historical mistakes that comprise young earth creationism. All their monomaniacal scriptural fundamentalism, their pseudo-science, their ill-informed books, articles and videos – they are driven by the above base rate errors that start them off on the wrong track.
I hope that’s a useful account that will help you engage with young earth creationists (if you are not one), and help you to fix the faulty thinking (if you are one).
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