Tuesday, 6 May 2014

Going 12 Rounds With An Evolution-Denier



Back in the day, when I was less preoccupied with writing books, and had more time to debate science and faith, I used to get into debates like this one below - a debate from 2009 with a staunch creationist fundie called Andrew Halloway, who is the contributing editor of the magazine ‘The Delusion of Evolution’.

The content of my original article isn’t really worth taking up extra space here – it was a standard reminder that Christianity and science are not mutually exclusive, and that they are comfortable bedfellows for those not beleaguered by a fundamentalist mindset. But as it might be archived soon, I think the debate that ensued in the ‘comments’ thread between myself and one of the so-called ‘top men’ of anti-evolution creationism is worth saving and sharing, not just for the factual errors seen in creationism, but as a quintessential example of the mental contortions into which creationists get themselves when trying to defend false dogma.

Hope it’s informative……


Andrew Halloway
There is much to recommend about James Knight's article here. I agree that good science and faith are complementary rather than contradictory, and that it is essential to interpret the Bible correctly. However, I cannot agree that evolution is good science. Far from anti-evolutionists all being raving lunatic fundamentalists, as James seems to think, there are many Christian scientists, highly qualified, who reject evolution and do not agree with a young earth creationist view of Scripture. Their objection to evolution is not on the basis of Scripture, but on the basis of science. There are even some atheists who doubt evolution!

The reason is that while the evidence for micro-evolution is well-founded (and no creationist disputes that), the evidence for macro-evolution is far from certain. It is an unjustified extrapolation from micro-evolution, that the latest studies in cell biology and genetics are increasingly showing to be too fantastic to believe. Prof Anthony Flew, the world's leading atheist philosopher for five decades, recently converted to belief in a God of some sort on the basis of the scientific evidence. He sees the evidence for intelligent design of the world as outweighing the against God, and says he is following where the evidence leads.

That said, to get back to the interpretation issue, I would say that far from evolution easily harmonising with Scripture, it presents enormous obstacles to a correct interpretation of scripture. You do not have to be a young earth creationist to see the conflict between evolution and an orthodox view of the Bible. In fact, accepting evolution forces you into a liberal interpration of scripture. If you don't mind that, fine. But for me, evolution conflicts with a whole panoply of biblical doctrines including the Fall, the Cross, and the restoration of creation at the end of time. True science does not contradict the Bible, so I argue it is quite possible that evolution is not true science. It is a philosophy - a belief system - that ultimately opposes a Christian view of the world.

So, James, defend science and I will agree with you. Defend evolution and I will not.

James Knight 
Hi Andrew,

What I have made clear from the outset is that evolutionary theory does not conflict with scripture at all. The comments about lack of intermediary fossils are simply incorrect, but even if that were true, given the vast timescales here, one shouldn’t be overly demanding, particularly bearing in mind that most creatures do not fossilise anyway. Given what they have to work with, evolutionists succeed as pretty good cartographers in mapping an accessible theory.

The human genome project has provided for us accurate information about the whole history of evolution through analysis of DNA and the chain of events which led to ourselves and other primates. Scientists are even very sure that they know at which point in the tree of evolution the chromosomal fusion occurred in our ancestors for Homo-sapiens to evolve. Technically to say that we evolved directly from apes is incorrect - there were of course many proto-humans, intermediaries that used to cause us to ask about the missing link, many of which have now been found and provide us with an accurate picture of what our intermediary proto-humans were like. The evidence in favour of evolution used to be utterly compelling, now it is virtually impossible to doubt, if one knows enough about it.

Take a look at atavisms as a prime example. Occasionally creatures are born with traits which have been repressed in their recent evolutionary history. For example, humans born with tails, horses born with feet, hens born with teeth and whales born with legs. These atavistic features are always those which were present in those creatures’ ancestors - completely consistent with the genealogy of life according to comparative biology, the fossil record and genetics. There are never birds born with nipples or lizards born with a placenta or mammals born with feathers. The reason for this is that the nipple and lactation evolved in mammals, and feathers in birds, after the common ancestor shared by birds and mammals. i.e. - the two groups had already split before these features were developed. Whales however, evolved from leg bearing ancestors, chickens from toothed ancestors and humans from tailed ancestors. The evolutionary perspective fits the facts perfectly.

Aside from Atavisms, there are many strong evidences to support evolution; vestigial traits, species transitions in the fossil record, biological cladistics (of homologous structures) and genealogy which matches the fossil record, genetic cladistics which give the same tree of life as the comparative biology and the fossil record, evidence from embryology, the position and sequence of endogenous retroviruses in our genomes, and, to some extent, animal and human psychology.

While once we might have had more reasons to be sceptical - now are we beginning to fill in the gaps - the evolutionary jigsaw is virtually complete.

Andrew Halloway
James, I'm sad that you seem to be so concerned with supporting evolutionary theory that you can't see its obvious conflicts with biblical theology. However, whatever the theological problems with evolution, the scientific ones are just as great. You make the same mistake as atheists when you claim that "no scientist with any credibility denies the two principal findings of evolutionary biology." This is simply an absurd ad hominem attack on your opponents.

There is a vast chasm between micro-evolution and macro-evolution... Micro-evolution is the in-built ability God has given to every creature that enables them to adapt to survive in their environment. It is an observable fact accepted by all scientists. For example, Darwin’s famous finches on the Galapagos Islands, some of which have larger beaks than others. In years of food scarcity, this gives them an advantage over smaller-beaked finches, so more of the larger-beaked variety survive – and the end result is that finches as a whole don’t go extinct. But when food is more plentiful, the smaller-beaked ones return, provided they have not died out completely. So this is not evolution, despite Darwin’s finches having long been promoted as proof of evolution. They merely represent a back-and-forth cycle of adaptation.

So micro-evolution is something of a misnomer, because it is not evolution at all. It could just as easily be called variation on a theme. Natural selection encourages different kinds of finches, but doesn’t change them into hippos. All it means is that organisms can produce a wide range of varieties, depending on what instructions for change are ALREADY contained within their genetic make-up. What is needed for real evolution - macro-evolution - is NEW genetic information that is capable of building completely new biological structures. The evidence for this is simply missing.

All the examples given by evolutionists to prove macro-evolution, are in fact examples of micro-evolution. Macro-evolution has never been observed nor proven, so evolutionists point to micro-evolution and just extrapolate, i.e. assume that organisms can change beyond all recognition.

What they never explain is how. How can new information arise in an organism’s genes that is capable of building new, useful structures, and so developing a fish into a mammal or a dinosaur into a bird? Mutation is simply not an adequate explanation. The gene shuffling in the bacterium merely plays with what information is already there - it doesn't create a fish from a bacterium, just another bacterium. Creationists don't believe in the immutability of species - just the immuntability of the created 'kinds' of Genesis (perhaps the genus or a near equivalent).

Scientific experiments have shown that all mutations are either damaging or neutral. So a mutation may give an organism a temporary ability to survive better in its environment (e.g. the salamander's loss of eyes), but it’s at the expense of its ability to adapt in the long run because mutations actually damage or destroy genetic information. They don’t add instructions capable of building new types of organisms. So where could this new genetic information come from? The only source of information that we know of is intelligence. DNA is a written code that could have only come from an intelligent Mind. Chance variations in the genes cannot write new instructions, only shuffle around and activate existing ones.

In any case, calculations of the rate of mutation have shown that it is too slow. Even if mutations could explain evolution, there hasn’t been enough time in the entire universe – never mind since life appeared on earth – for mutations to change micro-organisms into complex creatures like humans.

Today, aware of the failure of mutations to explain evolution, evolutionists are hunting for new ways to understand how macro-evolution could work. It is far from proven! As things stand, either miracles were needed for this grand evolution scheme, or God created without using evolution at all. On current scientific evidence, there really are no other options.

Of course, new research might one day discover another mechanism by which evolution works, but history suggests this is unlikely. Far from proving evolution, billions of pounds of research over 150 years has only uncovered more and more complexity in life that has become harder and harder to explain by chance processes. The more obvious explanation for life is becoming impossible to ignore: that nature bears all the hallmarks of intelligent design – and therefore of an Intelligent Designer. Many machines in nature look very much like human designs. For example, the molecular motors which turn the cilia of cells look exactly like little electric motors complete with bearings, shaft and housing. In fact, engineers are always looking at nature for ways in which they can copy God’s designs, because his designs are more sophisticated than our own. For example, the flagellar motor in bacteria is so efficient that it is beyond the capabilities of any human-designed motor.

In addition, many of these mechanisms are not only complex but irreducibly complex. That means that if you take away a single part, they will not work, so they cannot have evolved bit by bit – they had to be complete at the beginning. Evolutionists' attempts to explain the evolution of the flagellar motor are laughable. There are also many biological processes that are irreducibly complex. For example, to code for RNA production within a cell you must already have whole and complete DNA. Yet to make DNA you must already have whole and complete RNA. Without one, you can’t have either. Also, it requires about 70 proteins to fabricate a DNA molecule, but you must have whole and complete DNA to fabricate those same proteins. Which came first – the chicken or the egg?!

Finally, research on the human genome shows that it is decaying rather than improving or evolving over time. In other words, we are accruing mistakes – hence the increase in genetic diseases and abnormalities – which is evidence of devolution, not evolution. When you look at the evidence, rather than theories, it is obvious that without miraculous intervention by God, evolution is impossible. The Bible describes six separate acts of creation, and that is a more logical conclusion from the evidence than evolution. As you acknowledge yourself, evolutionists themselves are now acknowledging that Darwin’s ‘Tree of Life’ – which theorised that every living thing arose from a single common ancestor at the base of the trunk – was wrong. A more accurate representation of the fossil record would be a series of bushes – with big gaps in between. That fits well with the Bible’s account of separate creations of plants, trees, sea creatures, birds, and then “livestock, creatures that move along the ground, and wild animals, each according to its kind”, and, finally, men and women.

The fossil record shows that life forms are complex right from the beginning – not simple. For example, various species of Trilobites had very sophisticated eyesight – some 620 million supposed years ago! And almost every major group or ‘phyla’ of complex animals that exists today appeared in a very short space of time during just one very early period in geological history – the Cambrian. It was so quick that this burst of creativity is called the Cambrian Explosion!  This explosion of life appeared in a geological instant, with no apparent evolutionary precursors. Even Richard Dawkins concedes that "it is as though they were just planted there, without any evolutionary history."

In On the Origin of Species, Darwin acknowledged that "several of the main divisions of the animal kingdom suddenly appear in the lowest known fossiliferous rocks." He called this a "serious" problem which "at present must remain inexplicable; and may be truly urged as a valid argument against the views here entertained.” It remains so. In fact, whenever organisms first appear in the fossil record, they are already fully formed and perfectly adapted. It looks as if they had just been created. Perhaps that’s because they were!

If God can create the universe, then life is no problem either. The truth is that it takes more faith to believe in evolution than creation. Perhaps that's because it is an atheistic philosophy, not a validated scientific theory. The incredible design intrinsic to all life shouts out one conclusion: an all-powerful Creator.

What I am concerned about is that you accept evolution as if it were fact, and are determined to build your theology on it. If evolution is proved wrong tomorrow, what will happen to your belief system? Science moves on. New theories arise. Even Isaac Newton's gravity theory is under review, and Einstein brought a new understanding that superceded much of what went before. Science arose quite happily in a theistic environment, and design was the accepted universal paradigm before evolution came along. What atheists have done is succeeded in imposing their own creation myth that, they believe, removes the need for a Creator. Christians who go along with it are aiding and abetting them, quite unnecessarily, as the evidence for evolution is by no means secure. In fact, every single 'proof' of evolution given in my school textbook when I was at school has since been discredited (not to mention that one or two were fraudulent in the first place - the peppered moth and Haeckel's embryos).

New ones have arisen, but they are not nearly as convincing. At the same time, insights into DNA and cell biology reveal a specified complexity that can have only arisen from an Intelligent Mind, not the chance processes of evolution. In addition, abiogenesis was disproved by Pasteur long ago, yet it is a pre-requisite for atheistic evolution today, despite a complete lack of evidence that life can arise from non-life. Theories of chemical evolution are at a dead loss to explain how the first life could have arisen. And the more we find out about life's complexity, the more unbelievable evolution becomes.

Intelligent Design is often written off by theistic evolutionists as a 'God of the gaps' explanation that will be removed one day, as God is gradually squeezed out of the gaps in knowledge. But quite the reverse is happening. As knowledge of life's complexity grows, the strength of the ID argument continues to grow. Evolution has become a 'Darwin of the gaps' - wherever an evolutionary explanation fails to bridge a gap of knowledge, evolutionists simply say 'Oh, one day we will have an evolutionary explanation.' Just give it time. Well, apart from that being a faith position rather than a scientific position, they've had 150 years and far more evolutionary explanations have been disproved by science than remain on the table.

James Knight 
Hi again Andrew,

Thanks for the response. Sorry mine hasn’t been so prompt, but I’m only just back online. There was certainly a lot to get through, and as you spent so much time with your response, I will take the time to go through your points with some detail. I have numbered your points and responded accordingly. I would like to extend the hand of friendship out to you, and say that although I think there are many parts to your post that are incorrect, I do not see them as impugnment against your faith, and I would ask that that precept is reciprocated. These subjects are contentious, and discussions about them should be conducted with the least pugnacity possible.

The numbering does not reflect the order in which your points were received, rather that there were a couple of questions/points that are quite involved, so I’ve left them until last. Here goes…

1) What I am concerned about is that you accept evolution as if it were fact, and are determined to build your theology on it.

I would like to address this first, and assure you that I regard us as brothers in Christ, and that intrinsically the issue of evolution has, for me, nothing to do with my Christian faith or fellowship with any Christian brothers or sisters. I most certainly do not build my theology around any science - in fact, I have gone to reasonably great lengths in my recent articles to show that the two do not negatively overlap. I have written nearly one hundred articles on Network Norwich, most of which are theological and do not mention evolution, so I would not say that my scientific views are at all cardinal in my theology.

2) If evolution is proved wrong tomorrow, what will happen to your belief system?

To my Christian faith? Nothing. To my scientific views? Plenty – but that is what good science demands of us - that we assent to what is shown to be right. I would be very excited at any discovery that demonstrated the falsity of evolutionary theory as we know it. Do I think it will happen? Absolutely not. But I have a very open mind. Do you, Andrew? When it comes to the more contentious tenets of science, to ask oneself ‘Do I have an open enough mind?’ is often to ask oneself the most important question of all.

3) James, I'm sad that you seem to be so concerned with supporting evolutionary theory that you can't see its obvious conflicts with biblical theology.

There aren’t any conflicts Andrew. The Bible is not a book of science.

Let me just reiterate, I do not think that most people reject evolution because of anything scientific. In most case, science is only a pretext to conceal their theological biases. Of course, if you know some of these good folk, Andrew, and they do not operate in a hermetically sealed discourse, you could always invite them on here to discuss these issues.

4)The truth is that, behind closed academic doors, evolutionists themselves dispute so many aspects of the theory that there is no overall agreement on the mechanisms, despite the united front presented to the public.

This is partially true, but it is not the mechanisms that are causing the principal disparity – we all agree that there is still work to be done before we can unfold the precision of the mechanism. But it is a sine qua non of the field of biological research that life has been evolving on this planet of millions of years. The only people who dispute this are those with a confused theological agenda, and those who know virtually nothing about science.

5) There is a vast chasm between micro-evolution and macro-evolution...

But only an imaginary chasm created and tailored by those on the minority fringes of sensible scientific enquiry. I think you’re confusing ‘chasm’ with ‘distinction’ - the distinction being that micro-evolution simply entails the extreme latter stages (the last few thousands years) of a very long macro-evolutionary timescale.

6) So micro-evolution is something of a misnomer, because it is not evolution at all. It could just as easily be called variation on a theme. Natural selection encourages different kinds of finches, but doesn’t change them into hippos.

Well of course it doesn’t! Finches and hippos are from different species-groups, so of course there is no change of that kind – but nobody is claiming there is.

7) All it means is that organisms can produce a wide range of varieties, depending on what instructions for change are ALREADY contained within their genetic make-up. What is needed for real evolution - macro-evolution - is NEW genetic information that is capable of building completely new biological structures. The evidence for this is simply missing.

The next one is a pretty meaty talking point - it concerns that tricky subject ‘information’. In a moment I will address here your claim that “Chance variations in the genes cannot write new instructions, only shuffle around and activate existing ones.”, because that is not quite right.

8) All the examples given by evolutionists to prove macro-evolution, including the salamanders and bacterium you mention, are in fact examples of micro-evolution. Macro-evolution has never been observed nor proven, so evolutionists point to micro-evolution and just extrapolate, i.e. assume that organisms can change beyond all recognition. What they never explain is how. How can new information arise in an organism’s genes that is capable of building new, useful structures, and so developing a fish into a mammal or a dinosaur into a bird? Mutation is simply not an adequate explanation. The gene shuffling you mention in the bacterium merely plays with what information is already there - it doesn't create a fish from a bacterium, just another bacterium. Scientific experiments have shown that all mutations are either damaging or neutral. So a mutation may give an organism a temporary ability to survive better in its environment (e.g. the salamander's loss of eyes), but it’s at the expense of its ability to adapt in the long run because mutations actually damage or destroy genetic information. They don’t add instructions capable of building new types of organisms.

This too is incorrect. Let’s have closer look at the problems here. When it comes to evolution, ‘beneficial mutations’ is the name of the game. Even in comparatively recent times there are many examples of beneficial mutations occurring, adding 'information' to the genome to confer a phenotypic advantage.

There is a German boy who has phenomenal muscles and superhuman strength. (http://www.genomenewsnetwork.org/articles/2004/06/24/musclegene.php).

There is a family with almost unbreakable bones.

(http://yalemedicine.yale.edu/ym_au02/findings.html).

There are some people with a ‘beneficial mutation’ which allows then to see UV light.

Also, bacteria in Japan have evolved a completely new gene for the digestion of nylon. This gene, called nylonase, allows these bacteria to live where there is otherwise no food.

There is a certain type of fungus that has evolved to withstand the highly radioactive interior of the Chernobyl reactor - in fact it thrives in this environment.

Here in the UK, there are piles of ore outside old lead mines. Lead is toxic to snails, but within the last hundred years, local snails have evolved a mechanism to live in lead rich areas - they incorporate the lead into their shells.

There are many more examples like the ones I have given above, but let me give a bit more detail on how new genes and 'information' can arise. I will give two mechanisms - each gene has a copy number. This is simply the number of times that that gene appears in an organism’s genome. Take the African clawed frog - Xenopus laevis - it has an extra copy of every single one of its genes; that is to say, the entire genome was duplicated. This is an extreme example; gene duplication usually occurs on a stretch of DNA, not the whole genome. Then, one copy of a gene can continue doing its function whilst the other can mutate. A mutated gene which confers survival advantage can be selected by natural selection and as a result the species has a new gene with a new function with new 'information' in the gene pool. An example of 'information' arising from this method is haemoglobin. I came across this a few years ago when I was researching beneficial and optimum growth methods in weight training. We have a version which is used to carry oxygen around in our blood as adults. There is a modified version, myoglobin, which is used to store oxygen in our muscles, and another version, foetal haemoglobin, which had greater affinity for oxygen, and is used to carry oxygen from mother to child during pregnancy.

Another fascinating way in which new genes and 'information' can be added is by endogenous retroviruses. A retrovirus inserts its DNA into its host and provokes the host to create more copies of the retrovirus. For one reason or another, the virus DNA is inserted but with mistakes which fail to aid the cause of the virus. Studies have shown that if this failed retrovirus DNA is inserted into germ line cells (i.e. sperm or egg cells) the inactive virus is inherited in the DNA, and that vast swaths of our genome have been produced in this way. We can trace genes for most things back to previous genes with previous functions. Take for example placenta development genes. At one point, an ancestor common to all humans was infected with a retrovirus. The virus genes were inserted into the DNA of a sperm or egg, the product of which is also a common ancestor to all humans. This virus DNA failed to produce more viruses, but was adapted through natural selection to form the structure connecting mother and child (the structure that we call the placenta). Wherever we go, the actual amount of evidence left in the wake of a certain evolutionary pathway is very conclusive indeed. Take the flagellum as a good example; the degree of homology between the flagellum and the components from which it evolved is overwhelming. Of course one must remember, it has been known for a long time that DNA from viruses are not only in our genome, but that they can make copies of themselves once they are in there. They were known about since before the human genome was sequenced, and appear in both famous original papers on the genome*

* They are, The Sequence of the Human Genome by Craig Venter, and Initial Sequencing and Analysis of the Human Genome by the International Genome Sequencing Consortium (which included our Christian brother Francis Collins; both of which were subsequently published in Science and Nature).

Studies have shown that as much as 8% of the genome is made up of retroviral DNA - and I have, in fact, read several papers belonging to the Journal of Virology, in which you can find as many as 22 families of human endogenous retroviruses, which in various states of disrepair appear in abundance in the normal human genome. Moreover, there are copies of numerous old endogenous retrovirus DNA which appear in exactly the same place in our sequence as in those of other primates, giving extra confirmation that we are ancestrally related.

A moment ago I spoke about ‘information’, but I ought to explain what is meant by ‘information’. Information in colloquial terms is a vague concept - yet mathematically, it is not - it is measured in bits where each bit acts to reduce uncertainty by a factor of 2. The question arises, uncertainty in what? The obvious answer is uncertainty in what is required to construct a useful biological molecule. This is incredibly difficult in practice because it would require making all the mutations possible for a given gene, and testing each of them for functionality by expressing in cloned life. This is not the perfect measure for information in biological systems - in fact, on the digital level of DNA sequences it is rather impractical. Furthermore, this information is only useful in the context of the other genes around it. If one gene in, say, the vitamin C synthesis cycle breaks, then all the other genes become useless and lose information. Information is ephemeral.

There are of course some examples where there clearly is new information, such as the creation of new genes - but it ought to be noted that in the strictest (and ideal) mathematical sense there is no new information out there because all possibilities are retained in the great nexus of mathematical potential - so in this sense nothing is new. Therefore when I talk about ‘new information’ I mean ‘new’ in the sense that they are new relative to that which is currently known or existent. In evolution, natural selection simply chooses the genomes with information that confers survival and reproductive advantage, occurring with repeated rounds of selecting the information that gives a better survival machine, and this results in a species adapting to its environment (the whole gene pool of the species shifts towards better survival). If one defines information as the genetic sequences available (that may do something useful - i.e. have the potential to have a function, but may not), then strictly speaking new information is generated whenever there is a fertile union between a male and female: the reshuffling of genes generates new combinations. Additionally, gene duplication events would also increase information.

The exact sequence of the parents is, of course, lost in the offspring, so there is also a loss of information, but if, however, you define information as only those bits of the genome which aid survival, then the animals with less information in their genome are more likely to die than those with more information. Therefore more information is naturally selected and for each generation that passes, more information is accumulated in the genome. Admittedly, it is one step back and two steps forward, but over a number of generations, there will be a ratchet effect.

This definition of information is related to a third definition; if you define information as that which encodes for complex functional structures, then information comes and goes, but still the ratchet effect which increases information occurs when averaged over many generations. Although complex structures do not a priori give survival advantage, one can observe from intricate structures evidential examples of our relation with our ancestors. We used to have vitamin C synthesis genes, but as we switched our diet to include more fruit we no longer needed these genes to produce vitamin C. The energy spent producing the enzymes needed for vitamin C production could have been better spent doing something else, such as finding food or pursuing mates. So losing the complex vitamin C synthesis pathway resulted in a survival advantage once we had plenty of vitamin C in our diet. Having said that, there are, of course, many complex structures that certainly do aid survival: the immune system, endocrine system, nervous system, vascular system, to name but four. So overall, complex structures can give great survival advantage - survival advantage is selected for by natural selection and so natural selection selects for complex systems and hence information.

A moment ago I said that with information we can compare different species and observe the exact DNA differences between them. Here is an example, related to the above paragraph. Vitamin C is a vitamin because it is essential, but it is not produced naturally by our bodies. Many species still have the genes for producing vitamin C. We know the pieces of machinery that are involved in its biosynthesis, and we know which DNA sequence makes these pieces of machinery. When humans had their DNA sequenced, scientists found relics of vitamin C biosynthesis genes. A broken gene with no function; still mostly intact but riddled with a number of mutations. When the DNA sequences of other simian primates are sequenced, not only do we find the same broken gene, in exactly the same place, but we find the same mutations. This is just one of many excellent pieces of evidence for the common ancestor between us and other apes.

But the story goes deeper Andrew. There are other primates that still have vitamin C genes intact - such as tarsiers and members of the strepsirrhini sub-order. These primates eat mainly insects, but we higher order primates eat more fruit. Fruit is rich in vitamin C, insects are not. Now we know that the last common ancestor that we shared with insect eating primates was approximately forty million years ago, as ascertained by dating the fossils which connect us and them. It appears that around forty million years ago primates switched from a vitamin C poor diet to a vitamin C rich diet. As there was no longer any evolutionary pressure on the vitamin C producing gene, mutations accumulated because detriment of this gene no longer affected survival rates.

The choice is straightforward - either we did not evolve from proto-human ancestors, yet God created very similar species with the same useless gene in the same place to make it look as though we did, or we did in fact evolve in the way that it appears. The answer seems to me obvious when we see that we share EXACTLY the same broken gene, in EXACTLY the same position, on EXACTLY the same chromosome, with EXACTLY the same mutations, in EXACTLY the same positions in the gene. This is even more remarkable when we consider how big the human genome actually is; we have more than six billion base pairs. This is precisely what we would expect from common ancestry. The fact that the genes correlate with feeding habits is both the icing on the cake and the cherry. Moreover, it isn't just this broken gene with which we see common ancestry. Genetic homologues are the same for almost every single gene in the human body. Of the 22,500 genes in the human body, every one that has ever been used in comparative genomic studies shows EXACTLY the pattern expected.

One only need visit the National Centre for Biotechnology Information page for human comparative genomics:


In the bottom right hand corner is a window called Tax Plot. Here you can plot the similarity between the human genome and that of two of 41 different species. So, for example, select Homo sapiens (human) versus Rattus norvegicus (rat) and D. melanogaster (fruit fly) and you will see that the rat has greater similarity to humans than the fly does. Now obviously the example I just gave has extreme differences, but you can do this for any combination of three species and get exactly what you'd expect from common ancestry as laid out by the fossil record and comparative biology. If the anti-evolutionists are right, God seemingly created all life with the specific purpose of making it seem that all species evolved from one common ancestor and that the further we observe along the evolutionary tree the greater the genomic similarities occur in exactly the places we would expect if evolution really happened.

Some creationists clutch at the thinnest straw and argue that the similarity in genomes between similar species is a testament to God using similar designs for similar species - but this does not really help matters, after all, there are many examples of useless genes in the genomes which give the appearance of evolutions, as well as the many intermediary fossils which give the appearance of transitional creatures.

I have already spoken of another example of a useless gene which we share with our primate relatives - endogenous retroviruses. Reteroviruses are viruses that implant their own genetic code into that of its host and the host's replicative machinery is used to make more viruses. Sometimes the virus successfully implants its genetic material, but the replication process fails to initiate. This occurred before the division of humans and other higher order primates. In at least one case, it occurred in s*x cells - and the virus genome was inherited by the progeny of our infected ancestor. We still have the relic of this virus in our genome, as do our higher order primate relatives. The working version is still seen in viruses. We have this relic in the same position, on the same chromosome as the other primates. This is another example of a useless gene which clearly shows ancestry.

9) So where could this new genetic information come from? The only source of information that we know of is intelligence. DNA is a written code that could have only come from an intelligent Mind. There are also many biological processes that are irreducibly complex. For example, to code for RNA production within a cell you must already have whole and complete DNA. Yet to make DNA you must already have whole and complete RNA. Without one, you can’t have either. Also, it requires about 70 proteins to fabricate a DNA molecule, but you must have whole and complete DNA to fabricate those same proteins. Which came first – the chicken or the egg?!

Again, this is wrong and based on more outdated science, but I had better take this further, as I’m not exactly sure what you mean by “new genetic information” - do you mean the special arrangements of items of meaningful units which represent concepts? Usually Andrew when I get in discussions about increases in information, I ask my interlocutor to define exactly what he/she means by information, and how they think it 'increases'. The two root fallacies are usually…

(1) Information is the special arrangement of items of meaningful units like letters or numbers which represent corresponding concepts.

(2) For evolution to be true information must increase.

So Andrew, increase in what? size? number? meaningfulness? corresponding concepts? Please, Andrew, if you going to argue on scientific grounds, at least use precise language. Can you stipulate what you think is a corresponding concept? A stretch of junk DNA with no use corresponds with the concept of ‘useless'. Does 100,000 base pair of useless DNA have less information than 200,000 base pairs of useless information?

Here is a question to aid me in understanding your definition of information.

If a number of genes (with their DNA sequences) are all involved in a process, such as ascorbic acid biosynthesis for example, then these genes contain 'information'. If all these genes are needed to perform the function of producing ascorbic acid (one gene for step one, another gene for step two, etc), then all the genes would have 'information' pertaining to their individual steps. If one of the genes was mutated so that the whole process is disrupted, then where are you saying is the loss of information; is it just in the gene that was mutated or do all the genes lose information?

This is a very relevant question, because a living thing is technically a non-linear system. What I mean by this is that all genes interact with each other in an intricate interwoven manner, with consequences far downstream from the location of the DNA. The 'meaningfulness' of the 'corresponding concept' of a gene (your “new genetic information”) simply cannot be assessed without the context of the other genes. Haemoglobin, which transports oxygen around our blood, is useless without other proteins to take that oxygen, split it up, move its electrons around etc. So which is it? Do all the genes involved in a chain of events lose information when one gene gets broken, or is it only the one that breaks?

Moving on to your point about DNA and RNA. DNA is a sequence which is transcribed into RNA and then the RNA is translated into proteins, which by their intrinsic properties then perform a function in the context other proteins, DNA, RNA, the environment and the by-products of the reactions between proteins, DNA, RNA and the environment, but you haven’t stated where you think the information lies?

Seek out 'A hierarchical model for evolution of 23S ribosomal RNA'. It is a paper I read showing the experimental validation of a hierarchical ribosomal evolution hypothesis. They believe that the ribosome, which appears almost unchanged in all life on the planet (apart from viruses), evolved from a simple machine into the complex machine we see today, very early in the history of life. Consistent with this hypothesis would be an essential core of the machine with non-essential units attached on the periphery. They found a layer of 19 non-essential components on the surface of the ribosome, which can be removed from the underlying structures. They then found another layer underneath, of 11 components. The interesting thing is that the structural features of the second layer were important for maintaining the integrity of the first layer only, not any of the underlying structures. They repeated this stripping of layers 12 times, identifying 59 elements along the way, leaving only a single, simple core. Every time they peeled off a layer, that layer was only important for the structural integrity of the layers above it. There were no cyclic dependencies - none of the units in the ribosome were irreducibly complex (i.e. every piece of the ribosome could be removed one by one without causing structural instability).

Here is an excerpt for you…

 "For justification of the suggested evolutionary model, we analysed those features of the 23S rRNA tertiary structure for which the 59 elements could be consecutively removed without damaging the integrity of the remaining part. Our analysis shows that removal of these elements is possible if and only if the arrows representing D1 and D2 dependencies do not form cyclic structures—that is, cases where a chain of several consecutive arrows arranged head-to-tail starts and finishes at the same element. A mathematically rigorous proof of this statement and the explanation of why the absence of cycles of dependence is essential for dismantling the 23S rRNA structure are given in Supplementary Notes 2. To demonstrate how unlikely the absence of cycles really is, we calculated the probability for the 23S rRNA structure to be cycle-free if the orientations of all A-minor interactions were chosen randomly. Our analysis presented in Supplementary Notes 2 shows that the total probability of a cycle-free arrangement in this case would be P < 10-9. Such low probability excludes the possibility that the absence of cycles of dependence in 23S rRNA has occurred by chance. Instead, it strongly supports a hierarchical scenario for its evolution, according to which the integrity of each element of 23S rRNA depends only on the presence of more ancient elements of its structure. The absence of cycles in the 23S rRNA tertiary structure does not depend on the way we defined individual elements, but instead represents a fundamental property of this molecule."
Besides, Andrew, it's common knowledge in the biology community that genomes regularly decrease and increase in information. It's all done enzymatically. Genomes often increase in information by uptaking DNA from the environment and then recombining with it in novel fashions. This is a very well understood concept and it's why people are worried about genes from GMO foods getting back into the environment.

10) In any case, calculations of the rate of mutation have shown that it is too slow. Even if mutations could explain evolution, there hasn’t been enough time in the entire universe – never mind since life appeared on earth – for mutations to change micro-organisms into complex creatures like humans.

Given that you think the earth is possibly 6,000 years old, I’m not surprised you think this, hahahaha!!! Only kidding!

But seriously, is this based on your Design Institute friends’ assertion that it would take 10,000,000,000,000 years for the differences between Chimpanzees and man to build up? This is complete nonsense, as I will show.

You should try to get a copy of a thesis called "Estimate of the Mutation Rate per Nucleotide in Humans" This is from a much better body of authority and puts a figure of 175 mutations per generation, comparing us to chimpanzees. With about 3x10^9 nucleotides in the human genome, and around 2% genetic difference between us (60m nucleotides), it would take around 350,000 generations. Chimpanzees breed at around 12-14 years of age (and Humans too, until relatively recently). Therefore it would take around 4.8 million years for the genetic difference to accumulate, not 10,000,000 million years as the DI says. Experts disagree on precisely (stress PRECISELY) how long ago humans and chimps diverged, but they all agree that it is less than 7 million years ago.

The DI uses underhand tactics to criticise radioisotope dating on the basis that we don't know if nuclear decay rates were the same in the past as they are now. But really they should know by now that the theoretical basis for calculating decay rates is quantum mechanics - the same theoretical basis for the field that the infamous Mr Peet worked in; spectroscopy. We can use spectroscopy to study the composition of stars that are many light years away from us and we find that they have the same spectrum as they do on earth. Therefore this shows that the underlying theory, which determines nuclear decay rates, has remained the same for millions of years!

11) 150 years has only uncovered more and more complexity in life that has become harder and harder to explain by chance processes.

Now it’s begging to become clear why you’re rejecting evolutionary theory – you’ve created a ‘chance’ or ‘random’ muddled caricature and rejected it on false premises. Even I reject your brand of evolution. Your interpretation represents a serious misunderstanding of evolutionary theory - a fallacious belief that the theory of natural selection is one of random chance. It is not, it is the very opposite. It is true that there is a certain chance element in the process; mutation is a process of random chance but it is only random with respect to improvement. Natural selection is the non-random survival of randomly varying genetic codes - the survival of which depends upon their phenotypic effects as regards the process of embryogenesis on phenotypes (on bodies) which cause survival or non-survival. Survival and reproduction depends upon the passing on of the genetic code of instructions that built them, equipped them and made them conducive to survival and reproduction. One of the reasons I think that this process is so hard for people to reconcile to their imagination is the sheer magnitude of the geological time in question (as I have shown in one of my earlier articles with Francis Collins’ clock analogy).

Things don't evolve by chance alone Andrew! Natural selection, the key to evolution, is not a random chance process. The environment applies very specific pressures (nature selects for certain characteristics). In a desert, for example, certain strategies for plant survival are favoured while others are selected against. Since major environments often last a long time, their effect on evolving life is not random. In the desert, the edge goes to plants with better adaptations for reproducing, despite the heat and lack of water. Mutations may be thought of as random, but mutations are not the same thing as evolution. They merely enrich the gene pool whose diversity natural selection acts upon.

In actual fact Andrew, it is easy to show you where you’re going wrong. Did you know scientists have shown that if the principles behind natural selection are fed into a powerful computer we can create complex engineering designs? Engineers (the prototypical intelligent designers, ho hum!) are using the creative powers of natural selection to aid them in their design efforts. The technique of "genetic algorithms", pioneered by computer scientist John H. Holland (somewhere in America, I forget where), simulates the mechanism of Darwinian evolution, involving mating, genetic recombination, reproduction, selection and mutation to design jet engines, integrated circuit chips, scheduling work in a busy machine shop, operating gas-pipeline pumping stations and recognising patterns. Thus, we have engineers using some of the key principles behind evolution to help them work out complex engineering solutions. There are loads more examples of this; anything from designing better bridges, to working out efficient routines for complex scheduling problems – they even use them here at the Council in Norwich. Clearly, this would be impossible if natural selection, the key to Darwinian evolution, involved nothing more than random chance. Natural selection serves as a powerful creative element in evolution, and that power is now being harnessed by computers for our benefit. Evolution works, Andrew, and it isn’t chance!!

12) Many machines in nature look very much like human designs. For example, the molecular motors which turn the cilia of cells look exactly like little electric motors complete with bearings, shaft and housing. In fact, engineers are always looking at nature for ways in which they can copy God’s designs, because his designs are more sophisticated than our own. For example, the flagellar motor in bacteria is so efficient that it is beyond the capabilities of any human-designed motor.

Again there is some confusion here. There are ~30 components in the flagellum, and we want to find out 'how did this evolve?'. If it could be shown that this could not have possibly evolve, then you are correct is assuming that this would be a major problem for evolutionary theory. But it isn’t at all. Just as we can build models of cancer related human proteins from similar (homologous) animal proteins by comparing the sequence of the proteins and accounting for the differences, we can do the same for the proteins from which the flagellum is composed. The first step is to get the sequence of the proteins in the bacterial flagellum. This is easy for someone who is qualified to do so (I’m not), as there are many databases that have this information (Entrez, ExPASy, SwissProt, PIP, to name but four). Searching for similar sequences in the databases (using a method called BLAST) we find that the flagellum has proteins related to three different systems:

(1) The type 3 secretory system. Bacteria use this to inject material into more complicated cells, such as human cells. This can cause cell death and provide food for the bacteria, or even stimulate the cell to take in the bacteria and allow the cell to be eaten from the inside!

(2) ATP synthetase. This generates ATP, an important molecule which stores energy in a way which can be used to fuel many cellular processes. This is a reversible machine. It has a rotor and a stator. It can work forwards, when the machine generates ATP from the food absorbed by the bacteria. It can also run backwards and destroy ATP as/when there is too much, preventing the build up of free radicals and subsequent cell death. It can do this because the rotor can rotate clockwise or anti-clockwise under biochemical control.

(3) The Tol-Pal system - this is important for maintaining the integrity of the bacterial outer membrane, but is more trivial in this issue.

So the first thing that stands out is that all these systems exist in the cell membrane. So does the bacterial flagellum. This fits nicely because you would expect the thing that is evolving to be in the same place as the bits it is evolving from, ho hum!! Now, (2) and (3) are very primitive and it is clear that they existed before the flagellum. It is possible that (1) actually evolved from the flagellum and not the other way round, but this is unlikely because there are 5 other, related secretory systems that are known. It seems that the secretory system evolved first and then diverged, with the flagellum evolving from the type 3 secretory system. There is also some other evidence which points to the same conclusion.

Having seen where the components came from, we are ready to ask the question 'how did these bits come together to form a working flagella?'. We know the motor came from ATP synthase and that the bit that sticks out came from the secretory system. What is needed is a simple modification of these components that gives an advantage to the bacteria over its competitors. Obviously this wouldn't be a direct signalling pathway because a signalling pathway for using a motor without the motor itself is of no use. If a signalling pathway were essential, then the system would be irreducibly complex and hence unevolvable, but it has been shown quite clearly how the motor came first.

(1) The secretory system that extends out of the bacteria is not rigidly attached to the membrane. Just as, say, bath water scum is at the interface between the water and the air, the extension is at the interface between the fatty membrane and the watery medium that the bacteria is in. This is easily demonstrable..

(2) There are often several copies of a gene. The number of copies is, not surprisingly, called the copy number.

(3) Mutations can cause an interface between two components to occur. This occurs all the time and again, is proven. One conceivable (and most likely) explanation is that a random mutation created an interface between a copy of the ATP synthase and the secretory system.

(4) This interface could cause a ratchet effect. ie) ATP synthase moves clockwise and the extension doesn't move. If ATP moves anticlockwise then the extension does move.

(5) When there is plenty of food/nutrients, the ATP synthase moves clockwise and the attached extension doesn't move. When there is not enough food, ATP synthase moves anticlockwise, causing rotation of the extension.

(6) This rotation propels the bacteria away from the food deficient region, giving an advantage to this bacteria over its competitors.

Now here’s the rub Andrew; this mutant with the interface between ATP synthase and the secretory system will have a survival advantage that is inherited by its offspring. This very primitive flagellum has just evolved. Natural selection can then refine the basic system and optimise it. There is so much evidence in the past few years that the flagellum is not irreducibly complex. One study showed that of the hundreds of copies of one protein that make the flagellum so powerful, it is possible to knock them away so that only one remains. The flagellum still worked even in these conditions, albeit not very well.

Not only is the flagellum not irreducibly complex; in fact, I would go further, I do not think any organism is irreducibly complex. Your underlying assumption that evolutionary theory fails to provide even a relatively complete idea of the evolutionary routes is simply not true, and is straight out of the anachronistic Michael Behe school, of thought. These claims are so outdated, but of course, if one is trying hard to close one’s eyes to them, one will remain in his own personal darkness.

When one talks about zooming in looking for creative qualities or intentionality, it is always important to remember something else here, Andrew. As a Christian, allowing that the primary ontology of our universe contains a cosmic blueprint designed by a vastly intelligent mind with the property of Aseity, then it is likely that He has incorporated creative qualities or intentionality at a level beyond the discernment of man. In other words, the universe isn’t necessarily going to serve up its ‘created’ secrets at the levels that IDists are looking for them.

12) In addition, many of these mechanisms are not only complex but irreducibly complex. That means that if you take away a single part, they will not work, so they cannot have evolved bit by bit – they had to be complete at the beginning. Evolutionists' attempts to explain the evolution of the flagellar motor are laughable.

Irreducible complexity is a deductively untenable proposition, for reasons already stated in the threads on my “Bringing Christianity and Science Together part one” article - namely because of the ‘scaffolding’ possibility, it is impossible to say that there are no evolutionary pathways. Given the foregoing, the very most one can ever say is that such-and-such MIGHT be irreducibly complex but it cannot be demonstrated that it is irreducibly complex

13) The fossil record shows that life forms are complex right from the beginning – not simple. For example, various species of Trilobites had very sophisticated eyesight – some 620 million supposed years ago! And almost every major group or ‘phyla’ of complex animals that exists today appeared in a very short space of time during just one very early period in geological history – the Cambrian. It was so quick that this burst of creativity is called the Cambrian Explosion! In On the Origin of Species, Darwin acknowledged that "several of the main divisions of the animal kingdom suddenly appear in the lowest known fossiliferous rocks." He called this a "serious" problem which "at present must remain inexplicable; and may be truly urged as a valid argument against the views here entertained.” It remains so. In fact, whenever organisms first appear in the fossil record, they are already fully formed and perfectly adapted. It looks as if they had just been created. Perhaps that’s because they were!

Again, another example of your outdated science. All of the above represents a serious and rather crass distortion of the true picture. In fact, you are so wrong in so many places, I hardly know where to being here. This has to be one of the biggest myths perpetuated in anti-evolution circles - and it has to be said, not only do we have numerous amounts of transitional fossils (that is, transitional between species), when it comes to physical organisms, every species in the fossil record is, strictly speaking a transitional form (that is to say, watch us evolve for another few thousand years and there would be significant differences in our organisms - we are always progressing and, thus, transitional).

But when it comes to transition between species there are plenty of species in the fossil record which are so similar to others that they constitute that which most people would refer to as a "transitional form". In the mid to late 19th century when Darwin was first presenting the case for his theory he was challenged because there were no "transitional species" in the fossil record. Shortly after, a fossil of a half bird, half theropod dinosaur was found - Archaeopteryx lithographica. This astounding fossil is probably the most famous fossil on the planet and clearly fits the mould of "transitional species". There are many more: amphibians, molluscs, trilobites, bony fish and reptiles -all of which demonstrate excellent examples of a clear progression of species in the evolutionary records.

Moreover, if you examine the bones in your hand, a fish's fin, a whale's fin and indeed the forefeet of many tetrapod groups, you will notice that in a great many cases the bones all correspond. This is also apparent in many structures in the bodies of vertebrates - there are clear connections. Furthermore, aside from the many transitional forms, we see many kinds of events which bring about genetic isolation. An example is the Common Mynah, a bird from south-east Asia. This bird has been introduced by humans to many Pacific Islands, Australia and South Africa. Tests have indicated that after approximately 150 years these birds are already showing signs of genetic uniqueness. It will not be too long before these separated birds will have changed to the point where they no longer recognise each other as the same species. This happens in the natural world too; for example when glaciation occurs and divides a population. Species can become genetically isolated in many ways, as you say, which is one of many ways that evolution can take place.

Regarding our own transitional ancestors - what was once called ‘the missing link’ - we can look back hundreds of thousands of ape generations to see the small changes accumulate, by looking at the fossil record and dating the rocks in which the fossils are buried. When we do that, we see a branching tree, one of the branches of which connect us, along with other apes, to a common ancestor, via a series of small changes. First we became bipedal, then our brains started getting bigger, then we started becoming more skilled, more intelligent, etc, until we reached the point as an organism when God was ready to put Himself into it - the first Adam.

Here, going approximately from oldest to youngest, is a list of some of the ape fossils which can be used to trace our past.

Sahelanthropus tchadensis, Orrorin tugenensis, Ar. kadabba and Ar. ramidus, Au. anamensis, Au. afarensis, Au. africanus, Au. bahrelghazali, Au. garhi, Kenyanthropus platyops, P. aethiopicus, P. boisei, P. robustus, Homo habilis, Homo rudolfensis, Homo ergaster, Homo georgicus, Homo antecessor, Homo cepranensis, Homo erectus, Homo heidelbergensis, Homo rhodesiensis, Homo sapiens neanderthalensis, Homo sapiens idaltu, Archaic Homo sapiens and Homo floresiensis.

Once we choose to break free from the chains of enslavement that manifest themselves in the shape of an anti-evolutionary bias, we can see that wherever we look there is demonstrable evidence that creatures have been evolving on this planet for millions of years, and that human beings are part of that evolutionary tree

14) What atheists have done is succeeded in imposing their own creation myth that, they believe, removes the need for a Creator. Christians who go along with it are aiding and abetting them, quite unnecessarily, as the evidence for evolution is by no means secure.

Your first assumption is, I believe, correct, but then you go and spoil it by claiming that any Christian that is pro-evolution is assisting atheists. Ever thought that it is, in fact, the fideists, extremists and crackpots that are doing more to damage the reputation of Christianity? One must look out for the warning signs, and realise that even the less systemic philosophies create their own system, as they so often emanate from a system of conjectures (see Wittgenstein’s Tractatus Logico-Philosophicus for a fuller exposition)

15) New ones have arisen, but they are not nearly as convincing. At the same time, insights into DNA and cell biology reveal a specified complexity that can have only arisen from an Intelligent Mind, not the chance processes of evolution.

Hmm…..now we’ve arrived at the very difficult concept of Complex Specified Information (CSI for short). Above you say “insights into DNA and cell biology reveal a specified complexity that can have only arisen from an Intelligent Mind”. What? Not true!! Not yet anyway! This is a very long and complex investigation that many experts are working on – it’s a lifetime’s work, and I suspect we will not be able to know for certain. But here’s you decreeing by fiat that this is already a fait accompli, case-closed fact. Not true, and one can tell a lot about how competent a person is on this subject by how far they are willing to go outside of what is already accomplished. In science those that run before the others have finished learning to walk are usually the ones talking nonsense.

But let’s look at CSI further, shall we? As I’ve said, this is certainly still work in progress, but the main rub is that Creationists/IDists claim that "evolution can't produce new information." For example, this is the core argument of Stephen C. Meyer in his allegedly peer-reviewed paper, "The Origin of Biological Information and the Higher Taxonomic Categories" in the Proceedings of the Biological Society of Washington (see also the extensive critiques of this paper at The Panda's Thumb).

Natural selection doesn't increase the information; it simply chooses the genomes with information that confers survival advantage. Repeated rounds of selecting the information that gives a better survival machine results in a species adaptation to its environment - the whole gene pool of the species shifts towards better survival. If you define information as the genetic sequences available which may do something useful (i.e. have the potential to have a function, but may not), then new information is generated whenever a male and female mate: the reshuffling of genes generates new combinations. Additionally, gene duplication events would also increase information, as I have already said (see my response to your section 12) .

16) In addition, abiogenesis was disproved by Pasteur long ago, yet it is a pre-requisite for atheistic evolution today, despite a complete lack of evidence that life can arise from non-life. Theories of chemical evolution are at a dead loss to explain how the first life could have arisen.

Again, this is simply wrong, Andrew. The only way we can approach the question of abiogenesis (the spontaneous emergence of life) is by conceiving of everything conceivable and then removing the impossible, and that is something that neither Pasteur nor anyone else could do. If the means for making life is part of what is left, then life can spontaneously appear. Defining life as something that can replicate itself and is amenable to evolution, the first trimming of conceivable ideas is that the life must be constructed out of things that exist. As far as we know, all things that exist are made from a finite set of constituents which are called the elementary particles. The manner in which these elementary particles interact with each other is well known; quarks come together to form nucleons, nucleons come together to form nuclei, nuclei combine with electrons to form atoms, atoms combine with each other to form molecules and materials, materials and molecules and atoms can create or destroy photons, and so on.

Just as we know about the compounds that pervaded the early solar system, because we know what comes out of stars and what can be carried in by comets, we know this because we can do astronomical spectroscopy and observe the contents of newly formed solar systems - we know that amino acids, the constituents of proteins, life’s 'workhorses', are found in space and can be synthesised in a lab by mimicking lighting striking earth’s primordial oceans. We also know that ancient clays can catalyse the reaction of some of the early compounds on earth into nucleic acids - which are often touted as the 'building blocks' of life. Not only that, but we also know that nucleic acids can spontaneously form the molecule known as RNA. RNA can not only speed up chemical reactions which could confer biological advantage, but it can work as a template for itself - perhaps the first mechanism of reproduction. When in comes to explaining the biological changes that have occurred in the last four and a bit billion years, as highlighted by cladistics and the fossil record, evolutionary theory stands up wonderfully well.

Of course, the formation of life depends on the environment. In order for something to proliferate indefinitely, it would have to grow and extract the necessary matter it needs from its environment. So the second trimming of conceivable ideas is that this incipient life must exist in a possible environment. Looking out into the skies with telescopes tells us that there are many environments ranging from the cold depths of space to the tens of millions of Celsius in the heart of the hottest stars, with almost all intermediates. However, not all these environments are conducive to the forming of life, in fact, many are impossible incubators.

As none of the elementary particles nor their simplest combinations can self-replicate in an evolvable way, life can spontaneously form only in those environments which allows life to retain its specific configuration of elementary particles that allows reproduction. On top of this, an environment that stays static will not do. These considerations rule out the depths of space, as not only is it so cold that change is incredibly slow, but cosmic rays will blow out any configuration of elementary particles which is complex enough to reproduce. Similarly, the thermal fluctuation present in really hot environments also blow out complex systems before they are even made, so these considerations significantly reduce the fraction of the known universe that could create and support life.

A planet orbiting a star seems like the only places left where the temperature ranges are good enough for supporting life. Similarly, comets and asteroids can cause serious terminal destruction of these planets, and so a big planet capable of deflecting these away would be needed to create and support life. The next trimming down of conceivable possibilities is that life must be made of what can be created by possible processes - theoretical considerations suggest that there may be more stable elements in the periodic table than we those of which humanity is presently aware.

Now that most the difficulties have been removed, we are left with universe that is more than 14 billion light years wide - most of which cannot produce life. However, the elements of the periodic table still allow a rich range of chemistry to happen; so rich in fact that many complex chemicals do exist and undergo reactions. We know that the vast majority of these compounds cannot reproduce under any known environment, but it seems that reproduction (self-replication) is not so complex that it cannot happen - it is just such a rare event that it needed a molecule to form a template of itself, against which the compounds in the environment spontaneously form a copy of the template. Even given the fact that our universe has approximately 100 billion galaxies, each with 100 billion starts in it, such is the RNA molecule, it is unlikely that a self replicating RNA molecule will spontaneously form on any given planet. But what if the universe had a blueprint that made such as self-replicating organs not only possible or likely but certain? Believing as I do that God is the creator and sustainer of the universe, I see no reason to worry about the likelihood of life ‘spontaneously’ occurring - all we are left to do as Christians is to observe the mechanism by which God did His creating and sustaining - for then we can have a clear picture of the blueprint and, most importantly, keep adding to it when we discover new information about our world. That, in fact, is exactly the opposite of what young earth creationists do - they have a rigid and intransigent idea about creation, and foolishly reject any discoveries that do not accord with their own worldview.

What we know about the origin of life is this. In this world, the common states are liquid, solid and gas. We know such incipient life could not exist in solids, because things in solids cannot diffuse around, and atoms vibrate around an average position. Equally, life isn't likely to exist in the gas phase, because the replication machinery has a necessary complexity - and hence weight which is too heavy to get into the gas phase. The fact that life exists in liquids is because liquids allows signal transducation by diffusion and can act as a suitable solvent for bio-machinery. Life was unlikely to exist in any other state apart from liquid - hence the ‘primordial soup’ metaphor.

The high surface tension, low viscosity, boiling point, melting point and the fact that water expands upon cooling can all be explained by the way water molecules interact with each other - namely that it is capable of making four hydrogen bonds. Why it does this ultimately lies with the laws of quantum mechanics. The Schrodinger equation, when solved for a given collection of atoms, tells us the properties of that collection of atoms. It tells us how much energy we need to pull it apart, or equivalently, how much energy is released when it forms. The same can be said for collections of water molecules. The solution to the Schrodinger equation is found using the same methods whether we are dealing with water, or ammonia, or caffeine or any other compound we care to study. The properties of water and all other molecules are the inevitable outcome of the natural dispositions of electrons and nucleons. The properties of water aren't arbitrary, they are emergent phenomena of the properties of the universe - just one of a myriad of consequences of the laws of physics.

The fact that life on earth depends on water, is a testament to how life has adapted to the aqueous environment found on the planet on which it arose. It seems true that many of water’s special features played a key role in allowing life as it is to exist - however, seeing that the properties of water are just a consequence of the combination of fundamental particles from which it is made, it is no surprise that us complex beings find ourselves on a planet which has this life-enhancing molecule in abundance, as opposed to anywhere else in the universe

Having said all that, it is important not to fall in the trap that many creationists fall in, decreeing that as we have no evidence that abiogenesis has ever happened evolution fails as a theory. This is simply not true, and using a court trial analogy, that is tantamount to saying 'we don't know where the knife came from, so no crime took place’ despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. It should be remembered that evolution doesn't say very much at all about the origin of life - it is a theory which explains the diversity of life via a selectional mechanism.

One must remember that a theory does not fail if it does not explain all of the observable facts. What makes theories great is that they unify facts. Quantum theory is fantastic because it explains so much. It can be used to calculate how much heat is generated when a compound is burnt, how a compound will behave in a magnetic field, what colour compounds are, even things such as why clingfilm is clingy.

There are so many discoveries that could show evolution to be false, yet not one of these discoveries has occurred. Rabbit fossils in a pre-Cambrian geological strata would prove evolution wrong, so would any land vertebrate fossils found in the Permian, Triassic, Jurassic, cretaceous, quaternary, tertiary, proterozoic or archean layers of rock. Moreover, if species were heterogamous and not homogamous, then that would falsify evolution too. If a bird with nipples or a mammal with feathers were to be found, that would also falsify the theory of evolution. The fact that 150 years of searching hasn't found anything to disprove the theory of evolution is a testament to how great a theory it is.

The theory of evolution predicted that transitional fossils will be found as intermediates between older and newer species. There are many such examples connecting dinosaurs to birds, fish to land vertebrates and primates to humans amongst others. Another prediction is that the unit of inheritance (DNA) should show more similarity between closer relatives than more distant relatives. Well, primates do have greater similarity to humans than other mammals. Other mammals have greater DNA similarity to humans than birds, and so on.

Evolution is a fact, Andrew.

17) And the more we find out about life's complexity, the more unbelievable evolution becomes.

To finish, I would say that, in fact, the more we find out about life's complexity, the more stupendous evolution becomes – and let me add to that, the more amazing.

I hope that’s given you plenty to think about, and been helpful in painting a bigger picture for you.

Best wishes

James

 
Andrew Halloway
Hi James, would just like to come back on some points you make.

1. When I said I am concerned that you are building your theology on science, I'm afraid you have not allayed my fears. As with all theistic evolutionists, you cannot avoid reading Genesis through evolutionary spectacles, which clearly affects how you interpret Scripture. Of course, an understanding of history, culture and archaeology can help illuminate Scripture, but as Denis Alexander's latest book on theistic evolution (Creation or Evolution: Do We Have to Choose?) clearly shows, maintaining belief in evolution requires a distortion of the plain meaning of Scripture.

2. To my question, 'If evolution is proved wrong tomorrow, what will happen to your belief system?' You replied, 'To my Christian faith? Nothing.' In general of course, I agree, but I was referring to your beliefs about how Genesis is interpreted, which directly affects your theology of creation.

3. You say 'There aren’t any conflicts (between evolution and Scripture)'. In your opinion, yes, but there are hundreds of theologians who would disagree with you. You say 'The Bible is not a book of science.' True, but I'm not contending that the Bible is a science book. However, it does tell the truth about the history of mankind and creation, and so whenever science conflicts with that truth, it is science (a human, fallible knowledge system) that we should doubt, not the Bible (divine truth). Instead, you seem prepared to idolise evolution over the Bible. True science does not conflict with the Bible, but evolution does - which means it's not true science.  A fundamental concept in biblical interpretation is 'Sola Scriptura' - which demands that all other authorities are subordinate to, and are to be corrected by, the written word of God. But theistic evolutionism falls far short of 'Sola Scriptura'. This is seen clearly in Denis Alexander's book, which performs interpretative gymnastics with Genesis in order to shoehorn evolution into the story of creation, when it clearly doesn’t exist there.

The Bible says the world was created very good and fell, beginning to decay. Evolution says it began in chaos and has gradually self-created into a state of complexity. The Bible says God created everything at the beginning, and his creative acts ended when he rested on the Seventh ‘Day’ (and we are still in that Sabbath Rest). Evolution says order has come about through natural processes which are continuing to ‘create’ today, and organisms will continue to be ‘created’ by evolution in the future. Both can’t be true. Which is authoritative and infallible, the Book of God or the Book of Nature? God can speak to us through nature, yes, but nature and human scientists are fallen – so they are not a perfect vessel for revealing God’s truth. Only the Bible is.

The Bible is our ultimate authority, and therefore takes the prime place in interpreting itself. so true Christian exegesis means to find out what the Bible itself actually teaches us about what Genesis means, e.g. how did Christ use its teachings and what was his and the apostles’ hermeneutic? When you look, you find out that Christ and the apostles refer to Genesis as literal history.  Denis Alexander warns us against the danger of reading passages with excessive literalism. Where, though, I wonder is the opposite warning? We live in times dominated by Enlightenment thought. We live in the unpleasant afterglow of over a century of unbelieving theological liberalism. We live in times when people think of the Bible in terms of myth… not the real world of time and space.

As one reviewer says: “It is not excessive literalism which has ruined the mainline denominations of the professing Christian church; it is liberalism. So where is Denis’ warning that we might be in danger of treating straightforward matters of history as if they weren’t? Where are we alerted to the risks of facing the Bible’s cold, hard assertions about real history, real space and time, and committing the sin of unbelief in their face?” Denis Alexander sums up his whole liberal approach when he says that Genesis “is describing creative events that occurred before anyone was around to describe them, so it cannot be history in any normal use of that term.” So, God isn’t capable of writing history unless he has human eyewitnesses to do it for him? Is it not possible that God inspired Moses to write real history – as the Bible itself claims – or are miracles not allowed in theology any more? For theistic evolutionists, Genesis is theology and evolution is science, and never the twain shall meet. The Bible wasn’t written as a scientific textbook, true, but they then conclude that where it does touch on scientific issues it can’t be trusted to say anything plainly – it must be all symbolic. In contrast, neo-Darwinism is science, so it can be trusted! Hail the new religion of evolution!  The truth is that Genesis makes historical claims and so does evolution, and in many places they are in conflict.

As the reviewer says: “As I read Dr. Alexander’s book, my main fear ironically isn’t that it’ll persuade Christians to embrace Darwinism. What this book will actually do to Christians who really take it to heart is much worse… it might lead them into a much more far-reaching theological downgrade, through the methods of Bible interpretation that Dr. Alexander uses… The authentic Christian approach to the Bible is to give it an unrivalled place of supreme authority and absolute truth, so that it dictates the parameters which any other supposed sources of truth must adhere to. The Bible is certain and non-negotiable; other sources of truth are uncertain, must fit within the parameters of Scripture and be believed with appropriate tentativeness.”

5. I said that evolutionists themselves dispute so many aspects of the theory that there is no overall agreement on the mechanisms, despite the united front presented to the public. You agreed, but said "The only people who dispute (evolution as a whole) are those with a confused theological agenda, and those who know virtually nothing about science." Please don't resort to ad hominem mud-slinging again. I don't have a 'confused theological agenda' and althogh I don't claim to be a scientist, there are plenty of scientists in the world who oppose evolution - do they all know "virtually nothing" about science?

6. I'm glad you agree that God would be needed to make evolution happen (if it happened) but believing God was needed undermines the concept of evolution itself. As Dawkins famously said, evolution made him an intellectually-fulfilled atheist, precisely because it enabled him to exclude God from the picture. Evolution is an explanation (however poor) of how life could have diversified from a single common ancestor to all the organisms we see today - by purely NATURAL processes, and therefore by definitin, WITHOUT the need for a supernatural God. You can't have your cake and eat it. You can have God as the originator of the first single common ancestor and as the designer of that ancestor's capability for evolution from then on, but he is not allowed to be involved in the process. But that's closer to a deistic than theistic belief.

7. You claim the poll showing most people don't believe in evolution was biased towards creationism because Theos is a Christian think tank? Think again. Theos co-published the research with Denis Alexander and theistic evolutionists as part of a 'Rescuing Darwin' from creationists campaign!

8. When I said evolutionists have had 150 years to convince the public, your answer was that "macro-evolution is... not amenable to simple laboratory testing or test/confirm or refute scenarios." Hmmm. How come you are so confident it's a fact, then? I quite agree it's not testable and difficult to prove -which is precisely why it is not a fact of empirical science but an uproven theory of historical science.

9. 'There is a vast chasm between micro-evolution and macro-evolution...' Saying it's imaginary is completely untrue, James. Evolutionists themselves use this terminology. There is a distinct difference between the two. Proving micro does not prove macro.

10. 'Natural selection encourages different kinds of finches, but doesn’t change them into hippos.' You said, 'Well of course it doesn’t! Finches and hippos are from different species-groups, so of course there is no change of that kind – but nobody is claiming there is.' Yes you are! Macro evolution is the theory that microbes can change to fish to reptiles to mammals etc. Evolution is all about change.

11. Information - see later.

12. Examples of apparently adding new information to the genome and mutations. All the examples you give are, as I said, micro-evolutionary adaptations to the environment. They are not the type of changes that involve the building of new bodily structures that can bring about macro-evolution. To take just your first example, the strong boy. The genetic info to create muscles was already there. The report says his strength was caused by "a mutation in a gene called myostatin, which regulates the growth of muscles. The mutation shuts down the gene." So a genetic mistake which allows muscles to grow unregulated is a good thing?! Look what happens when the regulation of growth hormones is 'shut down' - people grow abnormally tall but as a consequence have a whole load of other health problems. If this boy's muscles kept on growing out of proportion to his bone structure, his muscles could break his own bones. How is that an evolutionary advantage? Sure, nice to be stronger, but there is always a limit to the advantages of micro-evolution - a barrier which prevents macro. Michael Behe's book 'The Edge of Evolution' covers the latest genetic research which shows that micro-evolution cannot achieve much at all in the long run.

13. Regarding James's claim that Vitamin C synthesis loss is evidence for evolution, on the surface this seems to be a strong argument. But his comment in the first paragraph about natural selection selecting for complex systems and hence information is nonsensical. The example he gives is a LOSS of information, being that of vitamin C synthesis. It would be perfectly logical to imagine a scenario where a function is lost through Natural Selection, but this is a world away from showing that Natural Selection caused that same function to develop in the first place. The former is not the issue, the latter most certainly is and he has avoided the issue entirely. The real question for him is how does Natural Selection explain the emergence of the ‘but four’ complex structures that he cites. Further, how does he say the information (which he says Natural Selection can select for) was generated.

Secondly, on what basis can it be conclusively stated that the ‘useless genes’ are in fact useless? Evolutionists used to claim that most of the genome was made up of junk DNA and this was evidence of evolutionary history. As readers of the New Scientist will know, this has now been thoroughly debunked. There is now plenty of evidence for usefulness of the so-called 'junk'.

The key enzyme in this discussion is gluonolactone oxidase, GULO for short. The gene in humans is known as the GULO pseudogene GULOP, found on Chromosome 8.

Whilst the ancestry is an interesting point, James seems to be arguing that evolution has conclusively demonstrated that complex biological systems have been beneficially lost over the process of time. He suggests that this was caused by such a system becoming unnecessary and a waste of energy, but this is not the only conclusion that he could draw. For example, humans can manufacture 10 of the 20 amino acids that we eat plenty of in our diet. We do not call such systems a waste of energy.

The energy waste argument would only be valid if there was a large amount of vitamin C with a corresponding lack of glucose available in history, by deduction rendering synthesis of vitamin C from glucose a disadvantage, but this is simply not the case for fruit which has plenty of glucose and therefore it makes no sense to combine these two for his conclusion. To call such a scenario a survival advantage is frankly ridiculous.The only possible survival advantage I can think of is where some studies have tried to link high vitamin C intake with copper deficiency and birth defects.

I would argue that complex systems like the vitamin C pathway are hardly a waste of energy, even with modern diets, other studies have shown that the average lifespan of a human being using vitamin C went up by sometimes as high as 20%. Vitamin C production in humans, guinea pigs, primates etc.

have clear and scientifically validated survival advantages. It was one of the scientific observations that sparked off the 'free radical' nutrition movement years ago. One could argue from an evolutionary standpoint that such primates were forced to adopt fruit eating behaviour because they lost the ability to manufacture vitamin C. It is an error to conclusively assume that genetic change came after the change in behaviour and quite frankly it is naïve to call this a survival advantage open to natural selection. It would be quite sensible to suggest that behaviour was forced to adapt to accommodate a genetic disaster in the vitamin C manufacturing system. To me this is far more likely with an evolution paradigm, as the survival of a species to a shifting environment is dependent on adaptability based on adaptable survival systems rather than loss of such systems.

The existence of scurvy and no evidence of this system being able to re-evolve within the primate world would suggest to me that James' presented evidence is at best devolution evidence, if indeed his claims are not overblown, which I suspect they are. There are some studies that look at this same issue in birds but the variety is so great even within species that suggestions of re-evolution of this gene in birds are at best mere speculation rather than fact. Finally, There is a recent article in Scientific American about the HAR1 gene that has 18 differences between ape and man, but only 2 different between an ape and chicken. To follow James's logic, are we therefore more closely related to chickens than apes?!

See http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=what-makes-us-human

14.Mutation rates. There is plenty of evidence in the public domain that shows that current mutation rates are far slower than needed for evolution to be viable. I don't need Discovery Institute's figures for that.  For instance, if we want to turn an ape-like ancestor into a human in 2 million years we can assume 100,000 generations based on a 20 year generation period. If we assume out of 3 billion nucleotides 10 percent funcationality we have 300 million to work on - and if we assume a 5% genetic difference between apes and man then we need to find 15 million beneficial mutations in 100,000 generations; or we would need to find and fix in a population 150 beneficial mutations per generation. Now if we then consider some of the problems that Haldane and others identified, then to find sufficient beneficial mutations we need very large populations, and to get those mutations to spread through a population we need very small groups. To weed out the far more numerous harmful mutations and avoid error catastrophe we need evolution to proceed very slowly. Haldane argued that only 1 beneficial mutation could be fixed in 1667 years, whereas the current model requires 150 beneficial mutations fixed per 20 years. Even Steve Jones has said the current human population is not evolving for these types of reasons. But even if mutation rates were quicker in the past, there is still the problem of what mutation actually achieves - and for me it definitely doesn't achieve the sort of positive change that is needed to justify macro-evolutionary progress.

As for radioactive dating techniques, I'm sure that everyone realises they are based on several unprovable assumptions, and not just the decay rate in the past. But I'm not arguing for a young earth so I don't know why this is in the discussion.

15. James, when you argue that evolution is not a theory dependent on chance processes, you sound just like Richard Dawkins, who tries to argue the same. He says that because natural laws are involved then evolution is a directed process. But if there is no God, as Dawkins believes, then natural laws themselves weren't created but are themselves the product of chance processes, so they can't be used as an argument against chance. The fact is that you would say that God directed evolution, and I would say that for evolution to have occurred God would have had to intervene so much in the process to make it work that it might as well be called creation! The reason 'punctuated equilibrium' (PE) was invented as a theory was to take account of the fact that the fossil record shows too little evidence of gradual evolution. But all PE did was draw attention to the fact that there are huge leaps in the fossil record (I wish this site told me when I am running out of space!) that gradual evolution cannot account for. Then you say that natural selection itself is not random, so it can direct the process. Well, forgive me, but natural selection does not have intelligence, so it cannot direct anything. It is itself dependent on the random variations in the environment, so it is random too. Natural selection is not God.

And for the evolution of the first life form to be true, atoms must form useful molecules such

as enzymes, amino acids and proteins by random chance. It is mathematically impossible for these molecules, much less the far larger DNA molecule, to form by random action in nature. As for saying that a computer programme based on natural selection can help in engineering, well that's a self-defeating argument as the programme depends on an intelligent designer to design the programme and he can set it up to do what he/she likes.

16/17. Evolutionary arguments for how the flagellum came about. James, your explanation for how the flagellum MIGHT have come about by evolution is not proof that it did. The imagination can do anything (evolutionists need a lot of imagination, by the way) and you certainly have a lot, because so much of that explanation depends on so many other evolutionary assumptions being right. Just because we can conceive of an evolutionary pathway does not mean it happened that way. To disprove irreducible complexity you would have to find strong evidence that the flagellum DID evolve down a particular pathway.

18. Transitional forms. I'm sorry but you are so blinded by your acceptance of evolution that you say "every species in the fossil record is, strictly speaking a transitional form". What can I say if you see everything as evidence? That attitude is only evidence of your predisposition to see evolution where there is none. The truth is that a neutral person can look at the fossil record and see it evidence of the variety of forms created by a Creator (plus the variations within kinds that are possible under microevolution). Of course, someone with a predetermined view on evolution can come to the record and see it as macroevolution, sure. But both views are in the eye of the beholder. The fossil record is evidence that certain organisms existed. It is not evidence that one evolved from another - that is a huge assumption made only by those who have already assumed evolution is true. Hardly an unbiased, scientific approach to the evidence. The most that closely similar fossils can do is give us the idea evolution MAY have occurred. They cannot prove it one iota, because it is just as logical to assume that they represent micro-evolutionary variation. In the case of large differences, the fossils can logically represent completely separately created organisms, within the 'kinds' mentioned in Genesis.

Homologous structures, again, can logically be viewed either as a Designer using similar plans to construct species, or as common descent. You choose. And you already have, of course.

As for human evolution, that you seem to accept unquestioningly, you are on even weaker ground. The whole story is contrived on such meagre evidence of very incomplete skeletons (in some cases nothing more than one or two teeth and half a skull cap) and on evidence so widely disputed among evolutionists themselves that it takes a huge gullibility to believe. Really, James, we are told we all came from one ancestor in Africa, based on a couple of fossils of that earliest dated ape. Get real. You could not possibly prove the whole ape-to-human progression unless you knew you had dug up a statistically significant amount of fossils. Out of all the millions of apes and humans that have ever lived, few have fossilised, and even fewer have been dug out of the ground. There is an entire earth out there waiting to be dug up, and you would have to discover millions of fossils that all show the exact same sequence to have any hope of being able to prove the story. A statistician would say that evolutionists have an incredibly low statistical probability of being right, because their quantity of samples of all the apes and humans that have ever lived is so small as to be statistically irrelevant. It's a joke.

20. I said, "Every single 'proof' of evolution given in my school textbook when I was at school has since been discredited (not to mention that one or two were fraudulent in the first place - the peppered moth and Haeckel's embryos)."  You replied, "Any text book that proffers “the peppered moth and Haeckel's embryos” as evidence for macro-evolutionary theory, probably isn’t worth reading." Well, when I was studying O level and A level biology in the late seventies, these two were offered up as solid evidence of evolution, and they still are today. Even the BBC's own Darwin-celebratory programmes this year have put these forward as evidence for evolution yet again. And they are still in textbooks today.

But aside from those two, you didn't answer my statement that every 'icon' of evolution that was promoted as fact to me at school has since been discredited. It's taken time, but even the last two standing, Darwin's Tree of Life and junk DNA, have both been written off in only the last few years. Yet still I find good old David Attenborough presenting a BBC programme actually called 'Tree of Life' this year and going on about it as if it was still accepted by everybody. Of course the public trust him and are brainwashed by him and TV scientists who unquestioningly accept evolution.

In 2003, Richard Dawkins wrote: “…full knowledge of the tree of life will make it even harder to doubt the fact of evolution. Fossils will become by comparison irrelevant to the argument, as hundreds of separate genes, in as many surviving species as we can bear to sequence, are found to corroborate each other's accounts of the one true tree of life." (Richard Dawkins (2003), A Devil's Chaplain, Published by Weidenfeld and Nicolson London, UK, p.112).

How wrong Dawkins was. Less than five years later, the Tree of Life came under assault not only from paleontology but also from genetic data. In January of this year, even the highly pro-evolution New Scientist ran a front cover story saying, 'Why Darwin was wrong about the tree of life.'

To quote from that article: "For much of the past 150 years, biology has largely concerned itself with filling in the details of the tree. 'For a long time the holy grail was to build a tree of life,' says Eric Bapteste, an evolutionary biologist at the Pierre and Marie Curie University in Paris, France. A few years ago it looked as though the grail was within reach. But today the project lies in tatters, torn to pieces by an onslaught of negative evidence. Many biologists now argue that the tree concept is obsolete and needs to be discarded. 'We have no evidence at all that the tree of life is a reality,' says Bapteste. That bombshell has even persuaded some that our fundamental view of biology needs to change."

Creationists and Intelligent Design (ID) theorists had been saying that for years, but had been ignored, of course. Then take junk DNA. The scientific literature is now replete with examples that junk this concept. ID supporters predicted that functional DNA would be found within the 'junk', yet you say that ID has no testable theories. Well, this one has been tested and ID came up trumps.

In 1994, ID-proponent Forrest Mims predicted that non-coding “junk” DNA would have function, writing a letter to Nature, “Those supposedly meaningless strands of filler DNA that molecular biologists refer to as ‘junk’ don't necessarily appear so useless to those of us who have designed and written code for digital controllers.”

Nature rejected the letter, but in 1998, long before the "junk-DNA" revolution was in full swing, William Dembski predicted function for non-coding "junk"-DNA based upon intelligent design:

"But design is not a science stopper. Indeed, design can foster inquiry where traditional evolutionary approaches obstruct it. Consider the term 'junk DNA.' Implicit in this term is the view that because the genome of an organism has been cobbled together through a long, undirected evolutionary process, the genome is a patchwork of which only limited portions are essential to the organism. Thus on an evolutionary view we expect a lot of useless DNA. If, on the other hand, organisms are designed, we expect DNA, as much as possible, to exhibit function. And indeed, the most recent findings suggest that designating DNA as 'junk' merely cloaks our current lack of knowledge about function. For instance, in a recent issue of the Journal of Theoretical Biology, John Bodnar describes how 'non-coding DNA in eukaryotic genomes encodes a language which programs organismal growth and development.' Design encourages scientists to look for function where evolution discourages it."

(William Dembski, "Intelligent Science and Design," First Things, Vol. 86:21-27 (October 1998))

Finally, in 2004 Jonathan Wells wrote, “research shows that ‘junk DNA’ does, indeed, have previously unsuspected functions. Although that research was done in a Darwinian framework, its results came as a complete surprise to people trying to ask Darwinian research questions. The fact that ‘junk DNA’ is not junk has emerged not because of evolutionary theory but in spite of it. On the other hand, people asking research questions in an ID framework would presumably have been looking for the functions of non-coding regions of DNA all along, and we might now know considerably more about them.” (Jonathan Wells, “Using Intelligent Design Theory to Guide Scientific Research,” Progress in Complexity, Information, and Design, 3.1.2 (Nov. 2004), emphasis in original)

21. Complex and specified information. I didn't explain my view in detail as you have now done, so let me do so now. I can't explain it better than William Dembski himself, so forgive me if I quote him direct:

"Natural causes cannot account for Complex Specified Information (CSI). Natural causes comprise chance and necessity (cf. Jacques Monod's book by that title). Because information presupposes contingency, necessity is by definition incapable of producing information, much less complex specified information. For there to be information there must be a multiplicity of live possibilities, one of which is actualized, and the rest of which are excluded. This is contingency. But if some outcome B is necessary given antecedent conditions A, then the probability of B given A is one, and the information in B given A is zero. If B is necessary given A, Formula (*) reduces to I(A&B) = I(A), which is to say that B contributes no new information to A. It follows that necessity is incapable of generating new information. Observe that what Eigen calls "algorithms" and "natural laws" fall under necessity.

Since information presupposes contingency, let us take a closer look at contingency. Contingency can assume only one of two forms. Either the contingency is a blind, purposeless contingency-which is chance; or it is a guided, purposeful contingency-which is intelligent causation. Since we already know that intelligent causation is capable of generating CSI (cf. section 4), let us next consider whether chance might also be capable of generating CSI. First notice that pure chance, entirely unsupplemented and left to its own devices, is incapable of generating CSI. Chance can generate complex unspecified information, and chance can generate non-complex specified information. What chance cannot generate is information that is jointly complex and specified.

Biologists by and large do not dispute this claim. Most agree that pure chance-what Hume called the Epicurean hypothesis-does not adequately explain CSI. Jacques Monod (1972) is one of the few exceptions, arguing that the origin of life, though vastly improbable, can nonetheless be attributed to chance because of a selection effect. Just as the winner of a lottery is shocked at winning, so we are shocked to have evolved. But the lottery was bound to have a winner, and so too something was bound to have evolved. Something vastly improbable was bound to happen, and so, the fact that it happened to us (i.e., that we were selected-hence the name selection effect) does not preclude chance. This is Monod's argument and it is fallacious. It fails utterly to come to grips with specification. Moreover, it confuses a necessary condition for life's existence with its explanation. Monod's argument has been refuted by the philosophers John Leslie (1989), John Earman (1987), and Richard Swinburne (1979). It has also been refuted by the biologists Francis Crick (1981, ch. 7), Bernd-Olaf Küppers (1990, ch. 6), and Hubert Yockey (1992, ch. 9). Selection effects do nothing to render chance an adequate explanation of CSI.

Most biologists therefore reject pure chance as an adequate explanation of CSI. The problem here is not simply one of faulty statistical reasoning. Pure chance is also scientifically unsatisfying as an explanation of CSI. To explain CSI in terms of pure chance is no more instructive than pleading ignorance or proclaiming CSI a mystery. It is one thing to explain the occurrence of heads on a single coin toss by appealing to chance. It is quite another, as Küppers (1990, p. 59) points out, to follow Monod and take the view that "the specific sequence of the nucleotides in the DNA molecule of the first organism came about by a purely random process in the early history of the earth." CSI cries out for explanation, and pure chance won't do. As Richard Dawkins (1987, p. 139) correctly notes, "We can accept a certain amount of luck in our [scientific] explanations, but not too much."

If chance and necessity left to themselves cannot generate CSI, is it possible that chance and necessity working together might generate CSI? The answer is No. Whenever chance and necessity work together, the respective contributions of chance and necessity can be arranged sequentially. But by arranging the respective contributions of chance and necessity sequentially, it becomes clear that at no point in the sequence is CSI generated. Consider the case of trial-and-error (trial corresponds to necessity and error to chance). Once considered a crude method of problem solving, trial-and-error has so risen in the estimation of scientists that it is now regarded as the ultimate source of wisdom and creativity in nature. The probabilistic algorithms of computer science (e.g., genetic algorithms-see Forrest, 1993) all depend on trial-and-error. So too, the Darwinian mechanism of mutation and natural selection is a trial-and-error combination in which mutation supplies the error and selection the trial. An error is committed after which a trial is made. But at no point is CSI generated.

Natural causes are therefore incapable of generating CSI. This broad conclusion I call the Law of Conservation of Information, or LCI for short. LCI has profound implications for science. Among its corollaries are the following: (1) The CSI in a closed system of natural causes remains constant or decreases. (2) CSI cannot be generated spontaneously, originate endogenously, or organize itself (as these terms are used in origins-of-life research). (3) The CSI in a closed system of natural causes either has been in the system eternally or was at some point added exogenously (implying that the system though now closed was not always closed). (4) In particular, any closed system of natural causes that is also of finite duration received whatever CSI it contains before it became a closed system.

This last corollary is especially pertinent to the nature of science for it shows that scientific explanation is not coextensive with reductive explanation. Richard Dawkins, Daniel Dennett, and many scientists are convinced that proper scientific explanations must be reductive, moving from the complex to the simple. Thus Dawkins (1987, p. 316) will write, "The one thing that makes evolution such a neat theory is that it explains how organized complexity can arise out of primeval simplicity." Thus Dennett (1995, p. 153) will view any scientific explanation that moves from simple to complex as "question-begging." Thus Dawkins (1987, p. 13) will explicitly equate proper scientific explanation with what he calls "hierarchical reductionism," according to which "a complex entity at any particular level in the hierarchy of organization" must properly be explained "in terms of entities only one level down the hierarchy." While no one will deny that reductive explanation is extremely effective within science, it is hardly the only type of explanation available to science. The divide-and-conquer mode of analysis behind reductive explanation has strictly limited applicability within science. In particular, this mode of analysis is utterly incapable of making headway with CSI. CSI demands an intelligent cause. Natural causes will not do.

James Knight
Hi Andrew, this pit of exoneration that you're digging for yourself is swallowing you more and more every time you post on here. Every time I see you transgressing the logical boundaries with comments like the ones above, a heavy wave of disquietude fills the air - these statements are a shriek for help. This horrible image appears - it’s you standing there with a light bulb over your head and the laughing devil standing behind it slow-dancing to Wagner’s ‘Ride of the Valkyries’. Not a pretty site. Wouldn’t you like to be disenthralled from this nightmare and shown the way to true uninhibiting science?

If, on the methodological Richter scale, a top thinker and assimilator of the data is 1 and a crackpot is 10, I would place you somewhere between 6 and 7. It’s not that I think you’re mad, just that I don’t think you are capable of abandoning or sensibly adressing your anti-evolutionary prejudice - whatever the data.

Ok Andrew, now that we’ve had a bit of fun, let’s get down to some serious talk by addressing your points. I will address what I think are your misunderstandings regarding evolution, biology and selection, as well as provide an explanation as to why I think you are entirely misunderstanding both naturalism, evolution in its proper sense, how the universe itself actually works, and what seems like a good prima facie case for a 'cosmic blueprint' theory. I also need to run through with you the ways I think you can address your investigative techniques with regard to suitable philosophical enquiry. let me just address some of the biological issues, by reminding you that evolution has left a massive trail of evidence in its wake, which you seem to have overlooked.

1) Vestigial traits – there are huge amounts of relics of ancient ancestry that, frankly, make those who deny our evolutionary past seem quite desperate. Moreover, if the earth is over four billion years old (a fact which is beyond doubt) – using an argument on your lines, there is absolutely no reason to suppose that God left it uninhabited for all those tens of millions of years before the Genesis account. Don’t forget, Andrew, the life that has been evolving for millions of years is hardly ‘left to its own natural causes’ – God is involved every step of the way; nothing happens if it isn’t in His original blueprint.

2) Embryology - not only are human embryos indistinguishable (except chemically) from those of a fish or lizard in the early stages of development, consistent with the idea that each generation is a slight modification of the previous, but the course of development is telling too. The whale foetus grows legs and then absorbs them, a testament to its legged ancestry. A cow foetus has upper teeth which are also absorbed, leaving no upper teeth in the adult - an advantage to their rudiment feeding habits which rely on back teeth for chewing (you may not have noticed, Andrew, but superfluous teeth do little more than collect bacteria and cause disease. There are many books written on this subject.

3) The fossil record - there is a clear picture which arises from the fossil record, which is consistent with geology and physics. We can date these fossils, and we can see from our studies of dinosaurs that 200 million years ago, when pangaea broke up, that this one species started to diversify differently on different continents. Take another example - the formation of the ear. We can see the multi-boned reptilian lower jaw in fossils. We know that this structure could feel vibrations. Sound IS vibrations Andrew. We can see the bones rising upward as we look at more recent, but similar fossils. We can trace this all the way until we get to the modern mammalian ear - with three tiny bones in the middle ear which are essential for precision hearing. There are so many transitional fossils, such as those of wolf-like animals evolving into horses. We have fossils of ambulocetus, an intermediate between land mammals and whales. We have fossils of acanthostega and icthyostega, intermediates between fish and land vertebrates, etc, etc, etc - there are so many Andrew. Just do some research and see as an example the amount of proto-elephants – there are loads of them – and you will see what I mean.

4) Comparative biology. All our closest closet ancestors closely mirror human traits and characteristics and behavioural patterns. Have you ever seen the things that humans and apes do that no other animal does?

Also, consider this. Imagine that you have three butterflies and look at their appearance. One purple with big antennas, one purple with small antennas and blue spots and one purple with small antennas and yellow spots. The simplest 'family tree' for this would be:

(1 group) Big antennas Small antennas -> Spots (2 groups)

Yes, it’s possible that spots evolved first, then antennas got small, then the spots were lost and then the antennas grew big - but the simplest tree has the fewest connections. Now - imagine you look at other features - feeding habits, eye structure, bio-molecular signalling pathways, flower preference and so on. Nine times out of ten, you will end up with the same family tree. Now - make the tree bigger and include moths and dragonflies and other flying insects. It is possible, by comparing these creatures, to lay out a family tree to see the order in which species diverged. You can use common features to define common ancestors. Of course, you can do this with all creatures and the way different features co-localise on the same tree is astounding. Take lactation - it only happens in mammals. No bird or reptile or insect or fish lactates - not a single one. Lactation appears on one branch of the tree, the mammal branch. Take another feature - the placenta. This too appears on the mammal branch, but evolved later on. We know this because there is a branch off the mammal branch that doesn't have a placenta - these lactating, non-placental mammals are known as marsupials and are very common on the Australasian continent. If you actually did some proper research Andrew, you would find countless other examples; one-way breathing system of birds, molecules for the immune system, bone lengths, heart structure, blood types, shell composition, ear shape, lengths of intestines, fur thickness, intelligence and so on, and so on. Nature provides so many features that encyclopaedias could be written on the subject of comparative biology and it ALL fits into an evolutionary framework - not only that but biological characteristics fall into the same family tree as seen in the fossil record.

5) Atavisms - atavisms occur when ancient genetic pathways are expressed by accident. Every so often a child is born with a tail. I'm not kidding, Google it. This is a relic of our tail-bearing past that has been accidentally switched on during foetal development. Similar things happen in nature - Chickens with teeth and horses with feet instead of hooves. In fact, they say Julius Caesar would only ride atavistic horses that had feet instead of hooves. One remarkable observation is that according to the evolutionary tree, horses have footed ancestors, chickens have teethed ancestors and humans have tailed ancestors. Everything fits into place perfectly from an evolutionary perspective. I’ve told you this before, Andrew, but just like many of my other comprehensive points, these are the ones you chose to overlook, or ignore and hoped I wouldn’t notice. If I thought it would be in the least bit worthwhile I would carefully go through all of the things to which you failed to provide a satisfactory answer, but I doubt your mind is open enough to consider the evidence properly. I hope I’m wrong about that, because I think you’re missing out on so much. Did you find the time to read my ‘Miracle of Evolution article? Its’ hardly the circumscribing viewpoint that you seem to suggest.

6) Molecular biology and genetics - these is SO much evidence in this field that even if there were no evidence from any of the above, the theory of evolution would have more than enough proof from genetics. Would you even listen if I elaborated? The gene sequences can be compared to one another in all manner of different species. The difference between them can be categorised and used to work out exactly which species are related to which other species. You scoffed at the Africa ancestry, but it is in fact possible to trace the spread of human populations out of Africa, by looking at where certain mutations appear, and drawing lines on a map between the indigenous populations that have those mutations. We know the first wave of exploration went on to colonise Australia. In fact, it is so accurate that we can even tell the difference between the upper and lower members of the Indian caste system. There are many surprises to be had with genetics. One startling observation I already told you about is the appearance of a new gene which eventually became the genes for forming the placenta. This gene is common in retroviruses, but not in animals. Surprisingly, a virus put its DNA into one of our ancient ancestors, but failed to replicate. This retroviral DNA spread to our ancestors' descendents, which eventually became crucial to the development of the placenta! Not only are we apes, but we are more than a little bit virus too!!!!

7) The state evolution has left us in - our senses are terribly flawed. Our brain filters what we see, removing much detail and giving only a vague outline of the external world to our conscious mind. Scotoma patients, who have damaged retinas, fill in so much visual detail that it impacts their lives, but it is just an exaggeration of what occurs naturally in a normal human brain. Similarly, our eyes detect only three colours of the infinite number conceivable, the mixing of which form the palette of our visual experience. Our hearing is restricted in frequency and our taste buds, which come in but five varieties, are severely limited in chemical scope. Whatever external reality is, it is very different to how we perceive it.

There are some things we can only infer the existence of by their effects, such as most planets outside of the solar system. Modern physics seems to be like peeling back layers of an onion. It started in ancient Greece, with Democritus's proposition of the atom. Bohr showed that the atom was a strange thing, made mostly of nothing, but with a solid nucleus. Then came the notion of subatomic particles, and Schrödinger's wave-equation, which explained the behaviour of all atoms and subatomic particles with a single formula. Einstein added to the complexity by showing that intuitive notions of space and time were ill-conceived; just approximations to reality, but approximations which are valid to the range of all human experiences on this earth.

I have only just touched the surface of what’s out there on evolution. My simple examples are nothing compared to specific cases of evolution - cases we can investigate with the full repertoire of modern scientific methods.

Darwin’s theory simply explains adaptation with a model of mutation and natural selection. The mutations need not be determined. Conceptually, the source of mutation is irrelevant - as long as there is genetic variation of some sort, then natural selection will choose the variant that survives - the survivor, on average, being the one that is better genetically equipped for their environment. In effect - the mutations can be random, not determined. It matters not if the mutation is caused by soot from a volcano or the permanent background radiation, nor does it depend on which mutations occur, as long as there are beneficial mutations and the harmful mutations happen at a rate that isn't so high as to destroy all previously naturally selected advantages. In other words, Darwin’s theory is general and robust. Robust enough to deal with the many changes in environment, including those changes which are thrown up by unpredictable or chaotic systems such as the weather. Evolution HAS to be this robust in order to explain the fact that life that has adapted in the diverse environments found on earth in the last 4 billion years.

Moreover, the physical properties of the materials, from which machines and life are built, are those we would expect from the average behaviour of their atomic constituents. I'll give an example - a cosmic ray hits a tumbling molecule and passes energy to it. Quantum mechanics shows us that we cannot predict when the energy is re-released, only the probability that the energy will be released within a finite time, and so we cannot know what orientation the molecule will be in when it emits radiation, nor where that radiation will go - it may end up causing a beneficial mutation. If it doesn't, then something else would.

Moving on to your comments about the tree of life – you’ve twisted that one a little. Contrary to your assertions, the tree of life is still pretty much correct, at least for us metazoans. It's a bit like pointing to a Pepsi can and saying 'Look, it isn't blue because there is a red bit'. There are a few of examples when branches on the tree fuse - such as the mitochondial merger and subsequent endosymbiosis which resulted in the evolution of eukaryotes, or the later merger which resulted in chloroplasts. Other symbioses may have resulted in gene transfer in some species, such as starfish, where the two genomes can be completely merged, forming one species from two, where the genes for the two parent species are expressed sequentially – for example, a larval stage then a reproductive stage.

Whilst the benefits of such merges are clear (some species are better at eating, others better at reproducing - together they can have the best of both worlds), the mechanism isn't. I will explain a paradigm in the next paragraph, but first I will describe why the tree fails when studying the 'trunk'. Horizontal gene transfer is quite common in bacteria, but there is still a core set of genes for each species which can be used to define the species and place it on the tree of life. However, to place a branch on the tree requires a lineage from which it can branch. This is fine for all recent life - following back it gives three clear lineages from which all modern life arose: prokaryotes (bacteria), archaea and eukaryotes. The meeting point of these three lineages is where the problem arises, and that was the bit that needed addressing – it wasn’t that Darwin was wrong, it was more that the tree has a web fused with it. Putting it simply, so I don’t ‘drown you in the sheer flood of the narrative’ - we can't say that archaea split from bacteria and eukaryotes then split from archaea, because there are some eukaryotic 'core' genes which are also present in bacteria, but not archaea. We can't say that eukaryotes split from bacteria then archaea split from eukaryotes because there are genes shared with bacteria and archaea but not eukaryotes. Eukaryotes and archaea couldn't have split from bacteria separately because they share core genes which aren't in bacteria. The only reconciliation is to assume that all three lineages (or at least two of them) were rapidly exchanging genetic material. Genes were not transferred predominantly by inheritance, but horizontal gene transfer also played a major role in shaping these three lineages from which all life is derived. Not all scientists agree on the specifics*, but they agree on the general principles and observations – and the thing is, Andrew, we don’t go jumping around saying the whole thing is bunk.

* Check out Chris Ponting (you can see him here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MH8XgQzjEE discussing the platypus genome). With his latest methods of making phylogenetic trees (he is top of his game), he predicts that he CAN get all the way to the root of the tree. I eagerly await his next publication in my non-crusading way.

OK, so now we know why the root of the tree seems more like an intertwined network rather than a hierarchical tree, I will discuss two ways that genes can transfer from one species to another - one way which creates a new hybrid species, the other resulting in translocation of individual genes. Both are understood, and I will speculate on how for example, snake genes found their way into cows (have you read about that?).

1) Symbiosis. Some species adapt to live so closely together that they cannot survive without one another. We, for example, cannot live without bacteria in our guts, however we are still two distinct species. Lichen, which seems to be one species, is not. It is a fungus and another species (often algae) which live so closely together that their genes can flow from one to the other - which probably makes lichen taxonomy a nightmare, ho hum! However, they are still two distinct species, even if the boundary is fuzzier and taxonomists use the fungal part to place them on the tree of life (although this fungal part of the tree merges with another part, in a sense). Finally, we get species where two species have merged and the genome of one has been almost totally transferred into the other. Often bacterial consortia are found. A consortium is a group of different bacteria where the waste product of one, be it ammonia or oxygen or hydrogen sulphite or whatever, is the food of another. The material coming into the consortium is recycled, often leaving a very efficient colony. The transfer of materials between consortia members is limited by the surface area that they can share. If only one member could get INSIDE another, then the whole process would be even more efficient. This has happened at least twice in the history of life (probably much more often), including in our lineage. Once one species is inside the other, a strange situation occurs. Both have separate genomes that compete with one another, yet they still rely on one another. There is a battle between friends. If the genes of one can be transferred into the other, then having two genomes is no longer a biological imperative. One eventually wins over the other and two species merge into one species (Nick Lane has written a few excellent books on this).

2) Retroviruses. Retroviruses insert their own genetic code into the host organism, which is then read by the host’s replicative machinery in order to make more copies of the virus. When the virus attacks germ cells (sperm, eggs, ones that have DNA that is inherited), sometimes the virus fails to replicate and the viral DNA is passed on from parent to child. Our genome contains vast amounts of retroviral DNA. We know these genes come from viruses because they, and their relatives, are not found in other lineages and because they are found in viruses. In fact, I’ve already told you about three times, genes for the development of the placenta were derived this way - they started as viral genes which were then adopted for novel biological function. Now, it is completely plausible (although not likely, I admit) that some RNA of a snake entered the genome of a retrovirus, which then successfully reproduced in the host and went on to infect another species - a cow. If this happened, then we would expect to see the snake gene in the cow genome to be located right next to retroviral genes on the chromosome. Admittedly this is just one of the strange goings-on, but the point remains.

Also, Andrew, remember there was not a light switch from non-life to life, it was a long process, and the best working hypothesis at the moment is that RNA dominated in the early/pre-life stage. This RNA was free floating, not in cells, so be careful with your distinction of ‘an organism’ and what would constitute ‘horizontal transfer’. RNA molecules interacted with each other, and in some way or another teamed up, or just got bundled up into cell membranes. Once there were entities which could rightly be called individual life forms the tree analogy starts to work pretty well.

Imagine throwing a bucketful of pebbles onto the floor and throwing away the ones you don't find attractive. You are effectively saying that the act of throwing away pebbles cannot produce nice pebbles. You completely miss the point - reproduction and genetic recombination produces new 'pebbles' all the time. Natural selection throws out the bad ones most of the time.

Finally, on thermodynamics, Andrew, you make so many scientific errors, that one hardly knows where to begin. You've just demonstrated the problem with simply citing other people’s work without having much of a clue about what they're on about. This, in fact, forms the basis for most of your arguments - I'm not sure even YOU know what you're really arguing.

The second law of thermodynamics does no such thing – it is not a roadblock to evolution. It says that total entropy (a measure of useful energy) in a closed system will not decrease, but this does not prevent evolution from taking place, because increasing order is not being prevented.

Firstly, the earth is not a closed system Andrew; sunlight (with low entropy) shines on it and heat (with higher entropy) radiates off. This flow of energy, and the change in entropy that accompanies it, can and will power local decreases in entropy on earth. But entropy is not the same as disorder (although, of course, the two correspond), but sometimes order increases as entropy increases. Entropy can even be used to produce order, such as in the sorting of molecules by size and the subsequent cellular activity that goes on to produce change. We can take this further - even in a closed system pockets of lower entropy can form if they are offset by increased entropy elsewhere in the system. The rub, Andrew, is that order from disorder happens on earth all the time, and evolution is a prime example of this. The only processes necessary for evolution to occur are reproduction, heritable variation, and selection. All of these are seen to happen all the time, therefore, you are barking up the wrong tree - no physical laws are preventing them. Vast amounts of study have been done and this - connections between evolution and entropy have been studied in great depth - and never to the detriment of evolution. But you're the sort of guy that sees a catchy headline (as you did with the ‘Darwin was wrong’ title on the New Scientist mag, mentioned in the other thread - {he wasn't wrong, by the way] - and takes that as a great big bullseye on the posterior regions of those who argue differently (and as it happens, more sensibly) than yourself.

It may even be true that evolution/origin of life is driven by entropy; in fact, some see the information content of organisms subject to diversification according to the second law, so organisms diversify to fill empty niches, rather like a gas that expands to fill an empty container. One could even propose that highly ordered complex systems emerge and evolve to dissipate energy (and increase overall entropy) more efficiently - but the counter argument to that seems to be based on this spurious notion of yours (although it's not really yours, is it Andrew?) that increasing order is possible, locally and temporarily, only if there is a Governor to direct growth and a power converter. Once again, you’re confusing 'God is necessary for creation' (a true statement) with this 'I, Andrew, can claim a palpable absence of X means Y' (an incorrect statement) - given that your proprietary estimation of the nature of X and Y really are, of course faulty. Here's a better way of viewing the situation. The second law of thermodynamics says absolutely nothing about programs to direct growth, and the only "power converter" it deals with is change in entropy - you cannot justifiably make such claims by bemoaning an absence of intentionality. Growth and order can be seen arising without an X program in many places. Clouds form complex orderly patterns, streams sort the size of the stones in their bed along their length, cooling basalt forms a hexagonal pattern of cracks. All of these show an increase in organisation, but you wouldn't say that we can't make them fly with theoretical notions - that's just how the world is Andrew - at least, that's how we view it.

Let me reiterate something for you Andrew - increasing order is NOT a violation of the second law of thermodynamics - even temporarily. A violation would be a decrease in entropy without a greater increase in entropy to go with it. Neither growth nor evolution violate the second law of thermodynamics because both take advantage of local differences in entropy to get work done. The environment IS the program through which and in which evolution occurs, and natural selection serves to communicate information from the environment to the populations of organisms, which, as I have said before, we see happening in every area of evolution.

Here's some more homework for you Andrew - get to grips with the notion that an increase in organised complexity is NOT the same as a decrease in entropy. The second law applies only to entropy; it says nothing that you think it says about organised complexity.

I've given you enough evidence there so that no reasonable person could question the fact of evolution, or that it is perfectly compatible with Christianity.

Yours fraternally

James

Friday, 2 May 2014

Rent Control: The Continuing Shambles of Labour


Goodness gracious, how much more of this Labour Party soap box oration are we going to have to endure before the election next year? First Labour MP David Lammy in The New Statesman did it, and yesterday the socialist demagogue Ed Miliband did it too - I'm talking about promising people that a future Labour government will cap rent increases with secondary generation rent controls (SGRCs). Don't be fooled by the anodyne expressionism - this is basically the wolves of the disastrous 1970s Labour party in the sheep's clothing of Miliband's New-Old-Labour.

Of course, it's not quite like the 1970s - Miliband's New-Old-Labour have put on their sheep costumes and have signposted rents towards market value, whilst making any subsequent increases difficult - but it's all based on the same irritating misapprehension that politicians do a better job allocating resources in the free market than the people making those voluntary exchanges themselves.

In a time when people from UKIP ('you kippers' as I like to call them) rightly get castigated for making comments about 'bongo bongo land' and Lenny Henry 'emigrating to a black country', it seems that the Labour Party keeps getting away with minimal reproach for what are similarly counterfactual and contemptible views (albeit of a different kind). If 'you kippers' deserve our repudiation for their shameful views, then Labour politicians deserve our repudiation for what is becoming an irritating succession of outmoded, popularity-mongering claptrap.

Here’s what wrong with the proposal. Rent controls artificially lower the price of renting an apartment to below the market rate. That’s a terribly bad idea. The consequences of this economic short-sightedness is a housing shortage. Heck, even some of the non-human primates (chimps, gorillas) know that the less you charge for something the more demand you create and the shorter the supply. When the government makes rent artificially cheaper it means landlords want to rent out fewer units than they otherwise would.

Alas, the long term vision of having more affordable housing for people will also be compromised with artificial rent controls. Suppose you’re a property developer looking to spend millions of pounds building a huge apartment complex in a major city – and let’s say you’re thinking of either London or Auckland. Suppose London has a rent control policy and Auckland doesn’t, and all other factors are equal – you’d head straight off to Auckland to avoid developing apartments in a place that makes you charge below the market rate to rent them out. This also knocks-on to affect economic growth too, as businessmen will be reluctant to locate to a country that artificially induces goods and services to be below the market level.

Here’s another way rent controls create shortages – they disincentivise already available rooms from being rented out. Suppose you live in Lambeth or Pimlico and you have a room to rent. If the State-induced rent control places the room at 60% of the value you place on it, you may well decide to leave the room unoccupied and use it for storage or an office instead. Every time a decision like that is made the government effectively eliminates hundreds of units from the rental market.

Furthermore, rent controls lower living standards too. If landlords have to artificially lower their profits they will be tempted to lower their own standards in order to cut costs and make up for their losses. They will be disincentivised to maintain properties in the way that they would if they were being paid what their rooms are worth. The consequent effect is that re-wiring isn’t done as frequently; general repairs are scarcer; utilities don’t get replaced when they begin to show faults, and the neighbourhoods (from gardens to graffiti) are cared for less. You may think that cutting corners to engender shoddier living standards won’t be tolerated by clients, but that won’t be a problem for landlords. With artificially low prices they will be able to fill their shoddy rooms twenty times over.

I have quite a few general maxims in life. Here’s one of them:

Lazy thinking gets us only as far as the conspicuous benefits of a proposal. Creative intelligence, however, takes into account not just the conspicuous benefits of a proposal, but also the inconspicuous costs - from which a full analysis of costs and benefits, conspicuous and inconspicuous, brings forth proper clarity of argument.
JK



What we see far too much of is politicians stating only the conspicuous benefits of a proposal, and acting as though they’ve got the argument sewn up. It just won’t pass muster. Everyone agrees there is a housing shortage. In response to this housing shortage, politicians either need to have the courage of their convictions and build more social housing, or they need to be honest and say they can’t justify the cost. This rabble-rousing price-fixing popularity contest from Ed Miliband just won’t do – it’s lazy thinking of the worst kind, and it’s little more than genuflection towards the few people left in the UK from whom his party has the slightest chance of winning (as opposed to obtaining) any votes.

* For more on this, see my Blog post Rent Prices & Social Care; Too Much Restriction?



Friday, 25 April 2014

Zero Hour Debacle



With the Coalition government doing quite well, Ed Miliband is really struggling to make any political ground in opposition (his party probably will get the most seats next year, but that's not to do with anything good he's brought to the table).

His latest tactic is to try to pillory zero hour contracts in an effort to make him sound like he's on the side of struggling people. His proposal isn't to ban them, it is to legislate to ensure that:

"Workers can demand a fixed-hours contract when they've worked regular hours over six months for the same employer. And they will they receive a fixed-hours contract automatically when they've worked regular hours for more than a year - unless they chose to opt out"

This is both inconsistent and myopic. It's inconsistent because if Miliband thinks zero hour contracts are bad for everyone then he should want them to discontinued. If he thinks they're good for some people, he is impelled to leave people's working arrangements to those involved in the arrangements, and not impose any extraneous (and arbitrary) regulations of the above kind. And it's myopic because the imposition of 6 month and yearly thresholds won't help the people working under those conditions that he's trying to protect, it will simply encourage employers to lay off employees just before the deadline to circumvent any contractual obligations.

As daft as Miliband has been here, the big annoyance though, as usual, is when politicians meddle when they are not wanted. When the Institute for Economic Affairs surveyed people working under zero contract hours they found over 50% of people found them beneficial, with 30% not liking them, and the rest not minding much.

But even if we don't read too much into surveys (and sometimes it’s not good to), the usual rule of thumb still supplies - governments should not interfere in the allocation of resources in voluntary transactions because they cannot do it better than those actually involved of their own volition. Thousands of people work under zero hours contracts - most of whom are people who've preferred them to the alternatives. A lot of people I know find them ideal for their circumstances - they suit all kinds of people; students, semi-retired people, and the many who want to earn cash but not be tied down.  It's a shame that some politicians in this country are getting so nannified that they are nearly blind to the qualities of a flexible, free market, and hopelessly unmindful of people's liberty to manage their own affairs.

* Picture courtesy of The Sunday Times

Tuesday, 22 April 2014

Old Wine Into Old Wineskins - How Ed Continues To Make No Sense



 
Ed Miliband popped up in The Independent the other day, telling us how in his election manifesto he is going to try to tackle the 'cost of living crisis' (his favourite term at the moment) by concentrating on creating jobs in this country rather than being over-reliant on consumption of goods imported in from outside.

The ignorance here is staggering. I won’t write too much about this delusional idea of a government creating jobs, because I think regular readers of this Blog will have picked up by now that the very idea of politicians being better determiners of allocation of labour, resources and capital than the actual people whose money it is behind those decisions is laughable. The notion that politicians will spend other people's money in the hope of securing votes better than owners of that money will spend it looking for profit is absurd - and anything to the contrary uttered by politicians ought to be exposed as drivel every time it is declared.

But while that's absurd in itself – it is arguably less absurd than Ed Miliband's other mistake in the newspaper, where he claims that he will help us become less reliant on consumption. His mistake here is in failing to realise that the purpose of all market activity is consumption - either consumption of goods or consumption of services. To see why, imagine you find a magic lamp that, when rubbed, will give you any good or service you want - food, films, dental treatment, a car, good health, legal advice, pain relief, a holiday abroad, therapy, you name it, you get it by rubbing the lamp. Upon finding this lamp you would have no more need to produce anything or have anything produced for you. Further, if you gave everyone in the UK one of these lamps then no one in the UK would have any reason to produce anything, resulting in industrial stasis. In the real world we don't have magic lamps, so we produce and consume through our own time and effort. The idea of having an economy that makes us less reliant on consumption is as foolish as having a marriage that makes us less reliant on love or a classical piano concert that makes us less reliant on music.

Another misapprehension from Ed Miliband is that he would prefer to see us manufacturing things here and selling them to foreigners rather than buying manufactured goods from foreigners. He's not alone; David Cameron often speaks this way too. I can only think that such idiocy must be a ruse to win a few voters in marginal constituencies. From such absurdity, it’s becoming more evident that both party leaders need to learn that the benefits of trade are not confined to artificial national borders, as anyone who has bought a book from another country on Amazon will know. In the same way, trade between two companies in the same country is no better or worse than cross-national trade. To see why, imagine that the Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales all became part of England. Technically that would reduce cross-national trade by a significant figure, but would all the traders in this new England really feel that they were any worse off because imports and exports had decreased in favour of inner-national trade? The answer is clearly no. 

I remember when I was about 10 or 11 meeting man from the north who bemoaned that Thatcher had took his job by closing down the coal mine in which he worked because coal could be bought cheaper from abroad. I said to him that surely this is a good thing, because cheaper coal is better than expensive coal for the one buying it, irrespective of the country from which he happens to come. The man scoffed, said he hoped one day I'd understand, and left the conversation. St Paul said "When I was a child, I spoke as a child, I understood as a child, I thought as a child; but when I became a man, I put away childish things". When that conversation about coal was going on I was the child and he the adult, but he was the only one failing to realise that trade should have no national preferences (see my Blog post here for further elaboration). His self-preservation meant that he preferred more expensive British coal to less expensive foreign coal. Short of discriminating against another trader based on nationality, his position lacked any sense.

This man was not alone - mercantilists used to make this silly mistake all the time - they wanted home trade because they thought that selling to foreigners means we are producing more than we consume, and that as we had the money from sold goods and foreigners had our sold goods that we were better off. Ed Miliband was only repeating past mistakes from people that gone before him - not understanding that consumption is the watchword, and that money itself is not wealth. It beggars belief that this man will probably be Prime Minister next year.
 
 

Wednesday, 16 April 2014

Misunderstanding The Basics

Here's a rather misleading headline doing the rounds today:


While the issues are serious, that’s exactly the kind of irresponsible and counterfactual way that you’d expect a Daily Mirror columnist to frame the question.

Here are my brief answers to the misjudged insinuations:

1) We have more millionaires than ever before in the UK because the market rewards success and innovation.

2) We've handed out 1 million food parcels because people are caring and want to help, and have found the means by which they can now assist those with less to eat than themselves.

It's odd how the reactionary media see Foodbanks as a sign that things are getting worse. Things might be getting worse in a lot of places, but there's every chance they might be getting better. Either way, an increase in Foodbanks is not necessarily a sign that things are getting worse - it's probably a sign that more people are now being helped than was previously the case. Here's an analogy. In the first year of their inceptive period the Samaritans received thousands of calls. That didn't mean suddenly everyone was getting depressed that year, it meant suddenly more people had someone on the end of a phone to offer support. That's probably the case with Foodbanks - it doesn't mean more people are now hungry, it more than likely means more hungry people are getting practical help, and that communities are doing more to provide that help.

Of course, it may still be the case that these Foodbanks are bad portents, and indictments of very bad times for many, but however that's addressed, it certainly is nothing to do with the fact that there are now more millionaires in the UK than ever before. This is a strange fallacy of the left - they have this foolish idea that it's because successful people are successful that unsuccessful people are unsuccessful. Anyone with more than a basic GSCE grade in economics would know that's absurd. Let me illustrate how it really works with two analogous statements:

A) Hunger occurs not because food is bad but because some cannot participate in eating food.

B) Inequality occurs not because trade is bad but because some cannot participate in trade.

People struggling in a free market are struggling because they haven't yet been able to capitalise in a way that benefits them. They perhaps haven't fully developed their skills yet, or they haven't yet found their vocational niche in a supply and demand market that rewards industry and innovation. Perhaps many never will – and that’s a worry, and it ought to be a signal that they need all the help and support that can be offered to them. But admitting that does not entail falling into fantasy. The current plight of those people, and the wages of low earners, are not dictated by the wages of high earners, they are dictated by the market value of the skills and labour. If the Chief Executive of a company had a government-mandated extra £50,000 a year knocked off his salary it wouldn't mean that the same firm's staff on £18,000 a year would suddenly find a wage increase. That is not how the employment market works, and nor should we want it to.

Monday, 14 April 2014

Live TV Trials, Judges & Probability



In the midst of the Oscar Pistorius trial there has been some debate about whether live TV trials are a good thing or not. I suspect it’s as broad as it is long, but ironically the probability of whether live TV trials are a good thing or not is similar to the probability the judge faces in the trial itself (there are no juries in South African trials).

In both situations we have a probability of 1 or 0, but asymmetry of information too - so even though there is a decision to be made, its efficacy is based on a system where, when considering 1 or 0, all bets are made up of amateur decisions made by one person with incomplete information. If the judge thinks that Oscar Pistorius is guilty with a .6 probability of being right then that's as good as a guilty verdict. If the judge thinks he's guilty with a 0.3 probability of being right then that's as good as an innocent verdict.

In other words, all probabilities less than .5 are tantamount to one verdict, and all probabilities greater than .5 as are tantamount to the opposite verdict. That is why I say the jurisprudence mechanism is 'amateurish' - not that it necessarily needs to be revised (although I do offer some suggestions for revision in these Blog posts here and here) - but that it operates under a loose probability system that you'd never see in a science lab, or in manufacturing, or engineering, or cartography, or NASA, or places of a similar nature. For that reason, the case *for* live TV trials and the case *against* them may not have much in them in terms of their persuasiveness. 

* Photo courtesy of digital spy

Saturday, 12 April 2014

Why Tuition Fees May Be Too *Low* Not Too High



Aaagh…. Labour MP Harriet Harman on BBC1's Question Time two nights ago said her party wants more people to go to university, and she'd like tuition fees lowered so that it encouraged more people to go on to further education. She never bothered to consider whether too many people might go to university at a reduced rate, and that the lower fees might increase demand to an unhealthy or unmanageable level. As for the fact that however much you increase demand you will not increase the universities' capacity for more students than they can take....nope, there wasn't even a mention of that. This has been brewing for a few weeks now, after the Northampton University vice-chancellor Nick Petford warned that tuition fees for British students could reach as much as £20,000. The key to this issue is to ensure that neither supply nor demand are being artificially stimulated. This is something that a great many politicians seem to be missing.

At their most expensive, tuition fees are currently at the top level of £9000 - which basically amounts to a loan from the government which is paid back when the graduate earns more than £21,000 per year. Instead of worrying too much about rising tuition fees, what should be considered is that putting up tuition fees might actually be a good thing for the country overall. There's no doubt that higher education brings about huge financial benefits to the county*, but there's also no doubt that having too many graduates devalues graduation in the labour market, and that in a state of diminishing returns the financial benefits would no longer bring about such efficiency.
 
When Liberal Democrat leaders like Charles Kennedy, Ming Campbell and Nick Clegg argued for tuition fees to be scrapped they showed themselves to be incompetent at economics. When in the coalition government Nick Clegg and Vince Cable reneged on their promise not to raise tuition fees they incurred lots of criticism, which is ironic because it was a rare example of them a) picking the right policy, and b) having the wherewithal to change their mind when they saw (with a little help from their bedfellows) that the preposterous proposals they had promised were risible.

If scrapping tuition fees is ludicrous, then what is the right price to charge a student? The answer is simple: students should be charged exactly what it costs to obtain a degree - no more and no less - and fees (prices) should match demand, whereby the right number of people are getting degrees. How do we know what the right number is? This is down to utilitarian efficiency, which is measured in terms of what we might call practical economic utility. What is meant by 'efficient' here is that an efficient transaction occurs when the overall increase in utility is greater than the overall decrease in utility. There is a lot of complex analysis we could attach to that, but not in any way that matters much here. Suffice to say, the key to this is price signals.
 
When fees are too low, people will study even though the cost of going to university is greater than the benefits of a university education. When fees are too high, people will be put off studying, which means there'll be too few university graduates. A few of the low-fee protagonists have argued that a decline in applicants would be evidence that the fees are too high. It would not be, as I'll explain in a moment; it would be evidence of less educational waste, with those no longer doing degrees being the people for whom the cost of going to university is greater than the benefits of a university education.
 
Of course, the standard argument in favour of subsidised higher education is that higher education confers benefits on others as well as on the main beneficiary, so it must be good for society if it is subsidised. I think this view is wrong. Deodorant, mouthwash, shampoo and washed clothes each confers benefits on others as well as on the main beneficiary, but no one is arguing for deodorant, mouthwash, shampoo and washing powder to be subsidised. Here's the key reason why - to take washed clothes as one example - when you wash your clothes you enjoy the benefits of clean and fresh clothes, but so do others too - your not smelling, your looking smarter, and your being a generally more pleasant person to be around are benefits that do not need subsidising, because you'd willingly buy washing powder yourself to ensure such things happen. The same is true of avoiding bad breath and greasy hair - the government doesn't need to subsidise mouthwash (or toothpaste) and shampoo because it knows you'll willingly pay for them yourself in order to feel fresh and at the same time be socially acceptable
 
This is what higher education is like - the benefits and rewards that are obtained (increased employment opportunities, higher earnings, being more highly educated, higher social status, academic prestige, greater knowledge, better conversations, and greater opportunities) certainly extend beyond the person doing the degree, but they are benefits and rewards that people feel are worth having without the need for a subsidy. That's why a heavy education subsidy only encourages inefficient numbers of students, and why a system that charges people the cost of their degree won't discourage people with real promise and potential from entering higher education.
 
For those reasons - unusual as it is - the government has its policy just about spot on with tuition fees. It loans to those who need it, and it only asks for payment when the post-graduate can afford to repay with a small proportion of their earnings, which means smart people from poorer backgrounds need not be put off from further education. To have no tuition fees would be to spread the cost of people's higher education amongst the rest of the taxpayers - and quite why anyone thinks they should foot the bill is beyond me.
 
Another good thing about the government's policy is that it also avoids too much of a market mechanism in higher education, which, if too money-centred can be a bad thing. Consider why. Suppose Oxford and Cambridge had hiked up admission fees to attract the elite. Such a policy goes against the thing they should value most - academic credentials. If you are an employer looking to employ an Oxford graduate, who would you prefer; one who got in on scholastic merit, or one who got in because of a privileged financial background? The value of attending Oxford depends largely on the university's reputation, which is built primarily on prior academic excellence of former students. By having applicant quality as the measure of admission, the average student quality can be increased, which then further increases the prestige, which then increases the allure for high-quality future applicants.
 
A system that neatly balances the admission quantity between talented young people that can pay (and do), and talented people that can't pay and are helped along the way, is a system that is just about right. It is inevitably true that being from a privileged high achieving background does confer advantages on young people that young people from working class backgrounds do not enjoy. This upsets lots of people - but it should not. Privilege mostly comes (either directly or indirectly) from high achievement. Therefore if you want to argue that that is a bad thing, you are arguing that a world in which achievement engenders advantage is a bad thing, which amounts to devaluing merit-based advantages - and to do that is to make a mockery of applying skills and working hard in general.
 
* The economic benefits of university students are thought to be worth about 59 billion to the economy – see the report here: http://www.universitiesuk.ac.uk/highereducation/Documents/2009/EconomicImpact4Full.pdf
 
** Photos courtesy of the bbc and telegraph.co.uk


 
 

Monday, 7 April 2014

Europe: In or Out?




I just got around to watching the Nigel Farage vs. Nick Clegg debate on Europe. It was a bit like watching a herbivore and a carnivore arguing over an over-done pork rind; one has no interest in having it, and the other knows that he'll never have the political teeth to bite into it.

To convey the key point I think Nigel Farage got right in the debate, I shall refer you to an earlier blog entry of mine, in which I considered the nature of alcohol, its effects on society, and whether it would be legal if it were invented next week….

"Pretend there's never been any such thing as alcohol.  Tomorrow someone combines ethanol with other compounds and proposes to trial on the market this new product call 'alcoholic drinks'.  The Government monitors its effect on society, filming those effects on the first night of public consumption.  Numerous drunken people go out on the town, losing their inhibitions, peeing in doorways, hurling abuse at passes by, having fights, trying to coax staggering drunk girls into bed, and throwing up all over the streets.  Next day a committee looks back at the effects of this new product called 'alcoholic drinks'.  It would never get past the trial stage - they'd stamp it 'illegal' right from the off.  So ‘effects vs. legality’ doesn’t always pertain to prudent practices or sound foresight."

Imagine if we'd never had alcohol and were asking about its potential legality today as a new thing under consideration - I'll bet there would be a lot of people who, upon seeing the negative externalities on society, would call for it not to be introduced into the market
. Asking the question with the signs reversed enables us to consider more than just past legacies and social habits - we can consider the merits and demerits of a proposal in prospect.

The way we framed the question of alcohol's desirability, in prospect, is exactly what we should do with the EU. Nigel Farage asked the question in exactly the right way - not simply considering the EU from the point of having it and coming out, but as though we didn't have it and were considering going in. That best helps people formulate a proper consideration of the merits and demerits, and not be susceptible to the endowment fallacy that comes with considering things we already have.

It is clear that there are costs and benefits to being in Europe - the question is whether there is a net benefit to being in. This is complicated by the fact that it is very hard to know about the true inter-connectivity between the costs and the benefits, and whether the UK needs to be 'in' to reap those benefits.

Take, for example, the European Arrest Warrant - here there is connectivity between European nations that enables criminals to be brought to justice by being returned to their place of trial. Not having that would be a loss to European countries, but then one wonders why such a connectivity has to be contingent upon being 'in' a stultified, bureaucratic, undemocratic Union of the kind we have. Given that it is mutually beneficial to all participants, surely we would have a similar European Arrest Warrant coalescence whether we are independent from Europe or not. After all, Britain has a similar arrest warrant coalescence with the United States, and they are not in any kind of Super State Union with us.   

That issue and many others like them are very much central to the debate - the putative benefits of being 'in' should be able to be enjoyed without the construction of this Super State Union run by charmless un-elected bureaucrats who, judging by many of the regulations, fail badly at efficient economics.

This seems to be a common theme - what proponents cite as benefits are, to me, benefits that could still be reaped as part of a European coalescence that didn't involve such a bureaucratic core. For example, one of the great things about the EU is that any member can work or travel anywhere else in Europe. With sensible immigration policies that remains a wonderful thing, just as it is great that Brits can leave the UK for Europe anytime they like (within reason). I see no reason why such a mutually beneficial set-up could not remain, irrespective of EU trade dogmas. The reason being, when it comes to liberty, freedom, trade, allocation of resources, and market potential, there is little a State central planner can do that a libertarian can't do on his or her own.

Thus, it seems clear to me that the big issue with the EU is the issue to do with trade. On that front there is no question that a lot of the EU top down management of the numerous regulations is bad for free trade, and hence, bad for economies. Here's an example; the EU's dreadful tariffs on non-EU agriculture dampens the price signals of agriculture and creates trade barriers that hurt much poorer non-EU countries like those in Africa. The result is not only an unnecessary disadvantage for those who desperately need more trade opportunities, it is a wasteful misallocation of agricultural adaptation as it effectively subsidies EU farming against those whose goods are more cost-efficient. It is disgraceful that that happens, just as it is dreadful that EU regulations prohibit so much business with the likes of India, China and Brazil.

Now there is some fear that some corporations would be less likely to trade with the UK if they were divorced from the EU. To some extent that might be true. Usually free market supply and demand takes precedence over relative irrelevancies such as the European-status of the country, but I can conceive of exceptions. Suppose 15 countries left the EU - what you'd have is an additional 15 national trade regulations ratified by those independent States, whereby cross border trading is delayed, impeded and more costly than it needs to be. To that end, countries that filed for this divorce would in some cases disadvantage themselves.

But that only goes to show why libertarians like me have been complaining about nannified regulation impeding trade - this wouldn't be a problem if the monolithic regulatory protocols were relaxed - most of them are entirely unnecessary, and cross-national surcharges most definitely are.

David Cameron will probably look back and realise that one of his biggest mistakes in this term was not re-claiming the territory lost to the best parts of UKIP - most notably the libertarian values of free-enterprise and global trade, small State regulation, and standing up to the charmless, un-democratic bureaucrats in the European Union, many of whose laws are stultifying, economically inefficient and nannified.

All that considered, then, it would seem to me that the best outcome is a strong united Europe, with multiple nations able to be mutual beneficiaries in good cross-European protocols (freedom of work and travel, sensible judicial policies, etc) but without the stuffy, undemocratic, regulation-mongering charmless bureaucrats who sit in Brussels, Strasburg and Luxemburg earning lots of money for doing very little that benefits global trade.

Free markets are not likely to be impaired by a UK divorce because, as I say, they are driven by supply and demand. The immediate threats, though, are problematic - for example, the likes of Germany and France wouldn't be keen on us cherry picking our favourite bits of Europe, and they may even subject us to 'outsider' tariffs. But if such regulations can impede trade this way it only goes to show how rotten at the core it really is, and not as fit for purpose as it was when it was the common market. Of course, the plus side is British trade outside the EU would grow, but the one thing left to worry us would be that divorcing ourselves from other major EU countries would make it hard for us to positively influence Europe from the inside.

Just about every passage I've written here is screaming back at me that the problem with the EU is trade barriers…trade barriers….trade barriers. If they can be sorted, things probably will be better - whether we are in or out.

Once we see Europe for what it is the picture can start to become clearer - nations are artificially created States whose borders are demarcated by political protocols, not free market protocols. Excepting currency, which is only a unit of value, the differences between the UK, France, Germany, Spain, Finland, and so on are based on division of political units, giving each nation a political and cultural identity. Economies are not demarcated in the same way - as money flows all over the world in small and large quantities. The economy of London is more different from the economy of Leeds than it is the economies of Madrid or Paris. The economies of Berlin, Hamburg and Munich are closer to each other than they are most of the rest of Germany. There are fewer economic transactions between Germany's Berlin and Germany's Ingolstadt than there are Germany's Berlin and England's London or France's Paris. In every way that's relevant here, the artificial units of nationality are quite separate from economic connectivity through trade. If I went on Amazon and bought Les Enfants Du Paradis on DVD, it would make no difference to me whether I bought it from a cheaper seller in Marseilles or a cheaper seller in Manchester - the transaction transcends national borders.

So…Europe…in or out? Instinctively I say 'out' - but what's very evident to me is that until there is a referendum all the benefits of being 'in' (and there are plenty) are benefits that ought to be, and can be, enjoyed without the unnecessary anti-free market restrictions that stop EU countries freely trading with non-EU countries. Encouraging rich Tom to trade with slightly less rich Dick because regulations inhibit trade with poor Harry is not in the long run helping Tom, Dick or Harry. In all likelihood, though, if we want to make positive differences in reforming this protectionist monolith, we'll have a better chance doing so from the inside rather than as an ex-EU divorcee - so 'in' seems to be the better option.

* Photo courtesy of bbc.co.uk

Friday, 4 April 2014

The Muslim Brotherhood Is Not 'Brotherhood Of Mankind'



In Rosemary Hollis's article* in The Guardian yesterday we saw a quintessential example of all those people in the UK who, when speaking about militant Islam, have the backbone of a paramecium. Hollis says:

"David Cameron's Muslim Brotherhood inquiry could well backfire. If the investigation leads to a ban it may appease the Saudis, but it would also alienate the millions who never espoused violence. Cameron will come to regret his call for an investigation of the Muslim Brotherhood. The move is opportunistic and set to backfire on him. The impetus reportedly came from British intelligence, not from the Foreign Office, where there is greater awareness of the dangers of alienating the rank and file of an Islamist movement hitherto identified as relatively moderate and nonviolent. The prime minister has created a trap for himself. If his investigation finds grounds to proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood it will alienate millions who never espoused violence in the first place."

So let me get this right, the authorities shouldn't investigate the dangerous, deranged fanatics of this man-made falsehood because it might upset the milder, more socially innocuous proponents of this man-made falsehood?

Not only is this the worst kind of craven journalism around, it inadvertently attempts to rob the moderates of the very integrity they wish to retain by joining us in repudiating fanatical nutters like those of the Muslim Brotherhood. One cannot help but think of Iago's famous line in Othello (ironically spoken by a man whose reputation deserved to be on the line):

“Good name in man and woman, dear my lord,
Is the immediate jewel of their souls:
Who steals my purse steals trash; ’tis something, nothing;
’twas mine, ’tis his, and has been slave to thousands;
But he that filches from me my good name
Robs me of that which not enriches him,
And makes me poor indeed.”

In imputing to moderate Muslims a reactionary outburst of indignation and dissonance in response to David Cameron's investigation, Rosemary Hollis irresponsibly tries to filch from them the good name they would want to attain by disassociating themselves from the bad elements of the faith. The true moderates, pertaining to be good citizens and able to integrate and assimilate into UK culture, would presumably welcome the investigations as much as the rest of us. To suggest otherwise would be as ill-judged as suggesting that the majority of Catholics don’t want Catholic paedophiles brought to justice because they happen to be of the same Christian denomination.

What about investigations into terrorism in the UK?
When a gardener wants to get rid of weeds, he or she must ensure they are dug up at the root with no traces left in the soil, lest they grow back. Leaving aside terrorism for a second, this is the policy the police use for tackling certain crimes. When an act is criminalised the authorities usually want to go after the suppliers rather than the consumers - that is, they want to get to the root of the problem, dig it up, and remove all traces of it. Think guns and drugs and stolen cars - it is generally the providers in whom the police are most interested, not the consumers or users. Their logic seems to them to make sense - if we get to the root of the problem (say, locking up drug dealers) we reduce the chances of further growth (number of users).

Perhaps that is a good strategy, but perhaps not. Maybe going after the suppliers is actually less effective than going after the consumers. By locking up consumers they leave fewer customers for suppliers, which decreases demand - and unless those sellers find new clients there will be a superfluity of goods with a scarcity of buyers. Bear in mind too that if suppliers look for new customers they increase the chances of getting caught dealing because new customers are unknown, and could be informers, mindful citizens, or undercover police officers.

So with those sorts of crime it's possible that the 'get to the root' ethos may have a negative effect on prevention, because incarcerating providers creates scarcity, which creates rising prices, which may entice more providers to try to enter the market.  If the authorities focused more heavily on buyers as well as providers they'd probably have more success.

When it comes to terrorism in the form of Islamic extremism, though, I think the opposite might be true - here the authorities probably need to focus more heavily on the roots. Unlike drugs or guns, Islam fundamentalism is sold in the form of propaganda and brainwashing, where influential figures are able to penetrate the minds of impressionable young men and convince them to become 'freedom fighters' for the Islamic cause. Lock these people up and keep them away from society and you'll probably find fewer people there to replace them, because demand for suppliers of extremism isn't niche-filling in the same way that demand for suppliers of drugs is niche-filling.

Even failed terrorism is costly
Finally, another reason to toughen up on Islamic fundamentalism is that terrorism brings about huge costs on society even when its attempts are unsuccessful (actually most attempted crimes are costly even when unsuccessful, but terrorism more so). Imagine the sheer number of stop, searches, regulations, airport controls, security checks and so forth that occur because of terrorist threats. Let's just do a very quick conservative estimate based on a few major airports in busy cities to make the point. Over 60 million passengers visit Heathrow every year, so let's say with other UK airports that totals 150 million (a generously low estimate). If heightened counter-terrorism security costs every passenger 3 minutes per trip then that makes a total of 450 million minutes of lost time every year, which equals 31,2500 days, or 856 years of human time lost every year. With UK life expectancy being averaged at 81 years, that's the equivalent of losing 105 lives every decade purely on terrorism-precaution.

So I hope Rosemary Hollis and those like her will forgive us if we don't pay much regard to fears of upsetting the people who might not be upset enough by counter-terrorism and anti-extremism. As far as I'm concerned, Islamic extremism is a dirty lake into which we can throw as many large boulders of opposition as we can muster.

* See the full article from Rosemary Hollis here

 
** Photo courtesy of barenakedislam.com

Sunday, 30 March 2014

Crimea River


As expected, with the tension in Crimea and the rather impotent threat of economic sanctions, some people on the left have used the opportunity to take issue with Russian ownership of UK business, complaining that profits made in the UK are sent overseas and are not being filtered into the British economy.

This is a foolish and absurd comment to make - it completely misunderstands the value of business and how financial exchanges are made. When a foreign investor looks to buy a UK business they pay less than the price at which they value it, and the seller sells for more than the price at which they value it. The buyer is buying a business that has been valued by the seller on the basis of future profits factored into the price. If Coventry Clive sells his tennis club to Moscow Mary he is exchanging his expected future profits for the buyer's price in the here and now. Moscow Mary on the other hand is buying the tennis club at a purchase price in the here and now in exchange for future profits henceforward to come.

So, far from any worry about her profits leaving the UK, when Moscow Mary buys the tennis club her forecasted profits are all contained in the purchase price which has just come into the UK. When her future profits leave the UK and go to Moscow they are future profits that have been paid for in the purchase price.

It is true that sometimes future profits will exceed the purchase price, but it is equally true that other times the purchase price ends up exceeding future profits. In fact, one might expect the latter to happen more than the former. If the buyer's offer was less than or equal to the seller's expected future profits then in many cases no sale would take place. Hence, in most cases the seller must value the expected future profits as being less than the buyer's offer - and every time this happens there is a net gain for the UK.

Finally, to criticise foreign ownership is often to be blind to other benefits. Take a Russian billionaire who buys a football club as a good case in point. The net gain for the UK is significant (and that's aside from the other ancillary benefits his wealth brings). In spending lots of money on players' wages he uses money that wouldn't have come into the UK economy to buy players whose tax from high earnings does come into the UK economy.

Don't listen to misguided politicians who complain about foreigners' profits going overseas - they are missing most of the picture.


What about the situation in Crimea?

Regarding the circumstances in Crimea, while I understand the fears about where Putin will go next, the actual situation in Crimea seems to me to be centred on a desired destiny that Westerners usually support - most notably self-determination and democracy. 

I can't see that mobilising troops, holding a referendum at gun point and claiming a democratic vote is something for which Putin would want to be thought responsible by his European associates. Thus, it seems to me that if he wanted to argue the case for democracy and self-determination for the Crimeans all he had to do was to push for a referendum under the rule of the Ukraine, observe that most Crimeans want to be Russian, and then push for that outcome. Given Ukraine's frosty reception from major EU countries, I can't think that he wouldn't have had a case, even perhaps being able to appeal through the conduit of international law. There are a few possible reasons why Putin didn't take that particular course of action:

1) He didn't think of it.

2) He did think of it but thought the Ukraine would be unwilling to offer the Crimeans a fair referendum without his intervention. 

3) He was feeling intense pressure from Russian people to stand up for fellow Russians in Crimea, so he took the more reactionary route.

4) He is starting of a series of aggressive military mobilisations under which he plans to annexe other small nations.

For me, 1 is highly unlikely; 2 and 3 are quite likely but if true then perhaps not really deserving of the Western reaction, and 4 is the biggie on which the European and American response hinges.

Let's discount 1. For me, 2 and 3 do not seem to me to be reasonable pretexts on which either Europe's elite or America can have too many complaints, particularly if you consider their military escapades in the past few decades supposedly for the cause of self-determination and democracy. Which leaves us with 4. Now I'm no fan of the Putin regime - but I can't help thinking that if Europe and America's present response has been because they fear it is number 4 then it seems to me to be an extreme response.

Whichever is the case, the Western understanding of local Crimea issues is bound to be both exaggerated and inadequate. People immersed in the immediacy of the troubles are going to have a broader and clearer perspective of their own troubles than those on the outside. Think of the difference between our perception of the Iraq conflict and those caught up in the Iraq quagmire. Imagine the difference between the UK perspective of the Syrian crisis and those actually afflicted by the tragedy. Or, if you want an example with the signs reversed, recall when the IRA were bombing on UK soil and remember the difference in reaction between the American government compared with the British government (and its citizens).

Just as the reality of the situation is felt much more intensely at home in those three examples above, it is bound to be the case that the Crimeans' push for self-determination regarding their own destiny and identity is much more meaningful to them than it is to us.

Wednesday, 26 March 2014

Who Is The Chancellor Trying To Kid?



As I've explained before on this Blog, the notion of linking a CEO's pay to a company's market value is not a very reliable measure of the CEO's performance. Suppose a CEO receives a £2 bonus for every £200 increase in the market value of the company. That would be a more watertight system if the CEO was responsible for every pound of that £200. But that's not the case; a CEO of an oil company, an energy company, a steel company, or a timber company is not responsible for the fluctuations in the global demand for those raw materials, nor the global supply, nor the price of other raw materials linked to the production of the products. Consequently, a CEO who claimed he was responsible for his Timber company's 300% increase in market value would be being very flexible with the truth.

Anyone who understands economics would know this. I think George Osborne understands at least the basics of economics - which means he also probably understands that many of his claims of success in the recent Budget are also as specious as those of our aforementioned Timber company's CEO.

When George Osborne talks about his successes in relation to economic growth and lower unemployment (his two favourites) he is simply listing facts that are largely beyond his control and taking credit for them. Increased economic growth and increased employment are going on while George Osborne is chancellor, but they are going on in spite of his being chancellor not because of it. To take credit for this is to commit a fallacy called the cum hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, which is a with event x therefore y causative fallacy.

I'm sure George Osborne knows how little Chancellors actually control the economy - so in taking credit for events that are beyond his causal power he must hope that enough people won't notice and will give him largely underserved credit. Also, let's not forget - taking credit for success stories gives them the ability to blame the opposition for unsuccessful outcomes in their past legacies.

In recent decades, the three principal causes for the UK's economic growth have been:

1) The flexibility of our market economy and the embracing of free market trade.

That was largely thanks to Margaret Thatcher's government and their pro-privatisation and deregulation reforms, as well as dealing with stultifying unions choking the British economy and inefficient British businesses that were being artificially propped up.

2) The prudent use of interest rates to manage demand at a domestic level.

That was due in no small part to our no longer being subservient to the Exchange Rate Mechanism.

3) The increased demand (and prices) for the knowledge-based services we provided throughout the world in a transition away from such large-scale manufacturing.

This was due to globalisation and the ability to capitalise on specialisation. Incidentally, when UK folk lament the loss of manufactured goods in this country, they often overlook the fact that we are still huge manufacturers - it's just that our production is not so much about goods anymore, it is much more service-oriented.

Once the Thatcher reforms were in place, and once we escaped the thrall of the ERM (both Conservative initiatives), future Chancellors like George Osborne were set up with a large box of cigars.

With that in mind we return back to George Osborne's Budget. The economy is getting better, but economies do - they fluctuate, largely independent of Osborne's initiatives. Here's an analogy. At the moment I feel really ill - I have a sore throat, I'm full of cold and I am continually coughing. Suppose I tell George Osborne that I'm going to take a couple of weeks off work and have lots of rest. Osborne says "No, that won't make you better - have some of my magic baked beans, they will make you feel better". I take them every day, but I still decide the rest will do me good. In a week or so I begin to feel better, and on seeing the improvement George Osborne tells me that it was my taking the magic beans that made me better, not the rest. Just as anyone who understands sore throats, colds and coughs knows that the rest would have made me better anyway without the beans - anyone who understands economies understands that global demand and global supply at both short-term and long-term levels are the decider of economies, not Chancellors. Chancellors do not exactly do 'nothing', but they also should understand that the national well-being is largely beyond their scope.

The same is true of employment - governments don't do 'nothing' - but they don't have much of a long-term effect on employment. It is easy to temporarily lower the unemployment level (apprenticeships and renaming statuses are two good ways), but if demand exceeds supply in the labour market, the successes will fluctuate and usually be short-lived.

The next time you see a politician taking credit for economic growth, be sure to scoff. And remember that exclaiming a strong causal link between the state of the economy and the performance of the government has a two-way effect - you can attempt to take unjust credit for good outcomes when you're in government, but you can also attempt to discredit previous governments by laying all the bad outcomes at their door. I'd advise that both should be undertaken with very sober judgement.  


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