Giffen Beliefs

 

In economics, a Giffen good (popularised by economist Alfred Marshall, but named after the economist Robert Giffen) is something that people consume more of as its price rises, because it is a basic necessity and they can't afford alternatives. A classic illustration of a Giffen good is the humble potato, which served as the most affordable calorie source for impoverished Irish farmers in the mid-1800s. When the devastating potato famine struck, the price of potatoes soared. Ironically, instead of reducing consumption, this price hike forced people to abandon more expensive foods like meat and milk, leaving them even more reliant on potatoes. Whereas in economics, rising prices usually reduce demand - Giffen goods become an economic snare; the costlier the staple became, the fewer options remained beyond it.

On my bike ride this morning, I started thinking of Giffen goods analogically in terms of Giffen beliefs, which would constitute bad beliefs that are harmful in society. Imagine false or harmful beliefs as the psychological equivalent of cheap potatoes - accessible, familiar, and “necessary” to make sense of the world in a difficult or unstable situation. Cults play on these types of belief. As the cost of these beliefs rises - in terms of emotional investment, social alienation, cognitive dissonance, sacrifice, and what have you - the individual becomes more dependent on them.

Like the Irish farmers who had to give up meat and milk to buy more potatoes, the cult member may shed better beliefs (critical thinking, outside relationships, and so forth) to afford the escalating demands of the bad belief system. And, of course, the cult leaders play on this too, because the belief system becomes a psychological trap; the more costly it gets, the harder it becomes to leave, because you’ve sacrificed so much else to stay in it.

Giffen beliefs, like their economic analogue, capture the self-reinforcing nature of harmful outcomes, where the loss of alternatives pushes people deeper into a dire situation, and where the more it costs, the harder it is to abandon.