Thursday, 1 January 2015

Bad Predictions Are Usually A Failure Of The Imagination

If bad predictions are a failure of imagination, then look at this one for a whopper….

"Inventions have long-since reached their limit--and I see no hope for further developments." Julius Frontinus (Rome, 10 AD)”

 (That was actually said in the 1st century).

Not only is this statement by Julius Frontinus a great candidate for being as wrong as you can be, it is evidence of one of the most astoundingly erroneous predictions and poor forecasting I've ever seen. Bear in mind too that the person who said this was actually an engineer.

It is interesting to see some of the many other bad predictions made here, often by people who understood the field in which the mistaken prediction took place. When Einstein said "Imagination is the preview of life's coming attractions" it seems this is the kind of failure of imagination he had in mind.