People who think we are compelled to vote in
elections use ethical persuasion (namely, civic duty and the value of
participation), but they never use mathematical probability, because then they
wouldn’t have a good argument. Their thinking is roughly; before an election,
without knowing the margin of victory, it’s theoretically possible for any vote
to be decisive if the race turns out to be exceptionally close, so you should
vote, because all votes count.
But there’s a lot wrong with that reasoning, because all votes do not count in a way that they would need to, to make it worth your while voting. In my constituency, the Norwich North seat was won by a margin of 10,850 votes. That means the chance that a single vote in Norwich North could change that outcome would be one in 10,850. It’s so unlikely for a large lead to be reduced to a margin of just one vote, the probability of an individual vote deciding the outcome here is actually much lower than one in 10,850. In fact, it’s closer to being so rare that it’s practically negligible.
Even more so across the pond - the chance of your vote making any difference to the US Presidential Election result is even smaller.
So, I don’t think we have a civic duty to assent to the value of participation, when the actual value of participation in terms of a probability estimate is close to zero.
Other than that, enjoy the Election. 😅
Further reading that elaborates much more on this subject:
A Radical Way To Change Politics For The Better
Some Things You May Not Have Considered About The Process
Of Voting
Why You Probably Shouldn't Have Bothered Voting
