In a
world in which nonsense is pretty uniformly frowned upon (everyone adheres to
this principle, they just disagree on what actually constitutes nonsense), the
biggest lot of nonsense believed by large groups of people always has at least
one fundamental flaw of logic underpinning it at the start, which I'll explain.
For
example, if you take the beliefs of repeat offenders such as young earth
creationists, socialists and climate change alarmists, you'll find one key
underlying fundamental flaw that feeds into all the other misinformation. With
young earth creationists that fundamental flaw is the mistaken base assumption
that evolution by natural selection is in conflict with theism. With socialists
that fundamental flaw is the mistaken base assumption that human beings can
arrange an economy from on high better than the natural price signals that
result from the intersection of supply and demand curves. And with climate
change alarmists that fundamental flaw is the mistaken base assumption that you
can have your economic growth cake while eating it too.
If
you're observant you'll probably be able to spot a common fault running through
all three mistaken belief systems - they all involve the failure to get to
grips with complex systems theory and the extent to which self-organising
structures amount to each individual contributing to a successful whole while
looking after its own interests locally.
Although
they differ slightly in the physical mechanisms that underwrite their drive
forward, biological evolution, the global economy, and the state of living
things in terms of the planet are all bound up in nature's thermodynamic
principle of the law of parsimony - that is, nature's principle of least
effort. Whether we are talking about Newton's laws of motion, the biological
mechanism of natural selection, electromagnetic radiation, the second law of
thermodynamics, or running a successful clothing business, installing machinery
in a new factory premises, trying to get from London to Brighton, or setting up
a remote controlled railway system for your children at Christmas time, these
are all underpinned by the law of parsimony - that what works most efficiently
is the path that takes least effort and uses the least energy.
It is
this understanding, and pretty much this understanding alone that informs us
that complex biological organisms do not have to be designed by a Deity in one
fait accompli swoop (as used to be thought quite commonly), that billions of
individual acts of trade in an economy serve the interests of the whole far
more efficiently than any government control, and that in order for humans to
continually increase their efficiency in terms of the environment the energy
we've expended and the resources we've used thus far have been an important
stage in that process.
Perhaps
the main barrier to realising all these things is that people like to feel a
sense of control and they like simple explanations. Because of this, the idea that
things can be managed neatly from on high and cannot be left to run on their
own steam is a seductive one. Consequently, too many people are beset by a
hubris that convinces them they are better at controlling systems than the
natural process of trial and error - what Hayek referred to as “selection by imitation of successful institutions
and habits.”
The best
way of correcting this misunderstanding is developing an understanding of how
those self-organising structures look after themselves locally and at the same
time contribute to a large, complex and efficient whole that runs best by its
own componential processes. That will constitute the real death of young earth
creationism, the erosion of the economic hard left, and the diminution of
climate change alarmism. In the latter case it should bring about a greater
realisation that for now the fossil fuel reliant industries of developing and
emerging countries are going to have to go through their own version of the
kind of progression-explosion of economic growth we went through during and
after the Industrial Revolution if they want to pull themselves out of
hardship, and that the climate change lobbyists are often retarding their
progress when they pile on pressure to cut down their carbon emissions -
something that, unlike more developed countries, they are much less well equipped
to do.
If you'd
like to see the quintessence of this blog post in action, you should check out
this awesome video, based on Leonard E. Read's classic essay I, Pencil, in
which he illustrates how many people it takes to make a pencil, once you factor
in the loggers, transporters, ore and graphite miners, steel manufacturers, lacquer
appliers, and countless others in the production process.
