Minds Closed For Business

Tom Gilovich, a social psychologist, has made intriguing discoveries about human beliefs, which go some way to explaining why so many people believe absurd things that are just plain wrong, and are so hard to be convinced otherwise. His research shows a consistent tendency that when we desire to believe something, we internally pose the question, "Can I believe this?" – and then we actively seek out evidence that supports our desired belief, and convince ourself that it is sufficient.

However, when faced with a belief we find undesirable, our internal query shifts to "Must I believe this?" – and then we look for reasons to discredit the claim. If we come across even one piece of pseudo-evidence that casts doubt, we feel justified in rejecting the belief. We use that as a pretext for freeing ourselves from the obligation of belief.

This whole “When we want to believe something, we try our best to justify belief in it, and when we don’t, we try to justify non-belief” is probably the best insight we have in to why people have such strange beliefs, and associate themselves with such nutty groups. They simply want to believe these things – which also explains why it’s so hard to talk people out of wrong thinking, even when most of the rational world continues to show how incorrect they are.

We can, of course, relate this to most of the world’s current mainstream follies. Most people in climate hysteria groups don’t really believe in the doomsday scenarios about which they forewarn – you can see from their behaviour and body language that they don’t really. Being in a climate alarmist group satisfies their need for virtue signalling, it feeds their attention-seeking, it reflects their dislike of successful people, it makes them feel like they have a cause, and it gives them a sense of identity and a sense of moral superiority (similar motivations apply to most socialists, in my experience, as there is so much overlap). All this is easy to figure out once you look carefully enough, and the same applies to many other cults, conspiracy theorists and extremist groups.

Young earth creationism is that other bogey that falls in these same traps, and perhaps the one I’ve challenged most in recent decades. Because of the perceived moral duress in terms of Divine punishment, and a perceived Biblical injunction, young earth creationists are perhaps the most prone of all to seeking out pseudo-evidence that supports their desired belief (Biblical literalism, no transitional fossils, irreducible complexity, unreliability of radiometric data, micro not macro, etc) and convince themselves that it is sufficient. And because they have no desire to accept evolution, despite the overwhelming evidence supporting it, they take the "Must I believe this?" approach, and use their pseudo-science to justify discrediting the evidence, and free themselves from the obligation of the facts.

Because the psychological roots of these cognitive biases lie in the deep-seated need for reinforcement, in-group validation and social cohesion, experience shows that rational persuasion is very rarely effective against anyone who feels they must believe something, and actively seek out evidence that supports what they want to believe. Views that are so entrenched, forming the bedrock of an individual’s perceived moral duty, ego, group identity and social solidarity are not on the table to be corrected. They are minds closed for business.