Truth, Beliefs & Confidence

 

Think about your individual beliefs and views on any given subject. Take a belief and call it x. You believe x is true, but what is your level of confidence in that belief? You might say you know it's true, or you don't know if it's true, or you are unsure of the strength of your conviction. The strongest statement is that you believe x and you know x is true. Think about how many of your beliefs fall into this category.

Now think about the beliefs you hold where you do not know if they are true. Then ask two further questions; 1) Why don't I know if the belief is true? And 2) Why do I still believe it if I don't know it's true? Note; I'm not saying it's always wrong to believe things you do not know are true - I'm just inviting you to think about the meta-questions surrounding your beliefs.

It's quite possible to have a justified belief in x without being sure x is true. It's also possible for x to be true without your knowing why you should know it's true. But for all the beliefs you have where you don't know they are true (for example, if you believe x, and x isn't true, it's impossible for you to know it's true - obviously!), some might be false, and you don't know why they are false. Not knowing a belief is false is primarily the reason why you mistakenly think it's true. But if you think it's true, but can't claim to know it's true, you should start to consider why you feel you don't know it's true.

Of all the beliefs in this category (where you accept P but reject -P without full comprehension of why), we can bring in a philosophical term called defeasibility. Beliefs are said to be defeasible when there is a realistic possibility that they could yet be shown to be false (we could discuss what we mean by 'realistic' but that's too much for this post). For something to defeat your belief x, a proposition would have to be presented that makes you no longer believe x. To be sure that your belief x is true, you'd have to be fully confident that there are no propositions that could be introduced that would change your mind about x.

But this level of confidence requires a kind of meta-level confidence in your ability to know that there are probably no prospective defeaters out there - and that is perhaps the defining wisdom in the confidence in believing x and being confident x is true. Furthermore, if you are in the position where you have no defeaters, you will probably be able to comfortably identify some (if not all) of the defeaters in your opponent's position.

One of the fundamental human problems is this; If someone you think you're allied to says something, you're more likely to believe it; if someone you think you're opposed to says something, you're more likely to reject it. This causes blindness to your own faults and to your opponents' strengths, and it amplifies to the point where you find it prohibitively difficult to see any other perspective or listen to balanced reasoning on particular matters.

Humans are primed to pursue status and reputation, and the status and reputation they prefer most is gaining regard from the people about whose thoughts, opinions and acceptance they care about most (call it group x). But left undisciplined, this creates a feedback loop, in that they look to gain more regard from group x, and care more about what group x thinks, and the more they care, the more regard they need from them, and the more regard they need, the more they care what they think, and so on. 

The trouble with feedback loops like this is that individuals who succumb to them get swallowed up into a cause or ideology or belief system from which it becomes harder and harder to disentangle themselves - and, as a consequence, harder to remain individuated and authentic. The only antidote to this is to look for allies in an honest search for the truth, because that is the alliance most valuable to yourself and to others.